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Cross-border fund flows are going to meaningfully shift as President Trump tries to reduce or eliminate trade deficits. Because the trade deficit is offset by the capital account, a lower deficit means fewer dollars being poured back into stateside physical…
Despite Secretary Lutnick’s recent comments, Social Security is a key source of income for many! Half of seniors get over half their income from SS, 25% of recipients get 90% or more. For those with a bachelor’s degree, SS provides…
After a significant rise in CEO optimism in the months following the November election, CEO confidence fell 20% in early March compared to January and is now at its lowest level since spring 2020. Making things worse, CEO forecasts for…
The Friday File: The odds of correctly picking all 63 games in the men’s/women’s NCAA basketball tournament, assuming each team has 50% chance of winning each game, is 1 in 9,223,372,063,854,775,808, or 1 in 9.2 quintillion. There aren’t that many…
In 1991, US net imports of crude oil and refined petroleum products averaged six million bbl/day. In 2000, net imports were 10 million bbl/day, and they peaked in 2006 at 12.5 million bbl/day. Then everything reversed. In 2010, imports declined…
The Fed left interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting, but there were tariff-related adjustments. Forecasted 2025 GDP growth slid from 2.1% to 1.7%, and 2026 growth from 2% to 1.8%. Expected 2025 core inflation rose from 2.5% to 2.8%, but…
The latest homebuilder sentiment index was super-soft. The overall index slumped to 39 (50 is neutral) same as, ugh, 2/07, and two of the three subcomponents worsened, current sales to 43, prospective buyer traffic to 24, and sales expectations over…
Mid-March figures from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment were dismal. Overall consumer sentiment sank 11%, and after big declines in January and February, is at its lowest level since 2022. Except for 2022 and Covid, it’s at…
The Friday File: Soon the NCAA wrestling championship tournament will occur. The men’s program with the most team championships is Oklahoma State with 34, Iowa follows with 24, including nine straight from 1978-1986, then Penn State with 12, including 11…
The trade deficit (the current account) plus net capital inflows (the capital account) must equal zero. A slow-growing nation like Japan runs a trade surplus of $200 billion/year, but it invests $200 billion/year abroad. Conversely, the fast-growing US runs a…