Month: April 2026
March economic data has been excellent but may be quite misleading. Housing starts were hot, employment growth was excellent and retail sales rocked, but income tax refunds supported spending, households are stockpiling in anticipation of war-related price hikes, and there…
Powell’s last Fed meeting as Chair was notable for four dissents, most since 1992. Miran, a Trump appointee there to hold incoming chair Warsh’s seat, as usual wanted a cut, but three bank presidents objected to any “easing bias” suggesting…
The 5% wealth tax on billionaires residing in CA on 12/31/25 is expected to be on the November ballot. The SEIU-UHW estimates the tax will raise $100 billion. A recent nonpartisan California Tax Foundation analysis estimates the tax will reduce…
The price gap between dated Brent (reflecting trading/pricing for a given cargo of crude oil as it’s loaded into a crude carrier) vs front-month Brent futures (which is priced for delivery in several months) is usually $1-$2. Currently it’s $25…
The Friday File: While Ken Jennings’ record of 74 games and $2,520,700 in winnings is not yet in jeopardy, at 30 games and counting, Jamie Ding is just two wins away, tying James Holzhauer for 4th place. As for total…
US retail sales grew by a staggering 1.7% M-o-M in March, the best monthly gain in three years. Even after stripping out sales at gas stations which rose 15.5% M-o-M due to rising prices, the increase was still a solid…
The recent rate run up saw the homebuilder sentiment index sink to 34 M-o-M, the biggest decline in 11 months, and the lowest sentiment level in seven months. Worse, the last time the index was in expansion territory (50+) was…
Banks say their private credit holdings are senior, secured, and diversified, yet they’re making markets in credit default swaps on private-credit vehicles by Blackstone and others. While not a conflict of interest, they’re building infrastructure, making bearish private credit positions…
Since the Iran War began, the stock market has been unusually volatile, right? Wrong! US equities have been less volatile than usual. The S&P 500 has swung at least 1% between its intraday high and low on 49 days YTD.…
The Friday File: On Earth, a sidereal day, one full spin relative to the stars, lasts 23h 56m. Mercury rotates in 58d 16h; Venus takes 243d (and spins backward). Mars: 24h 37m. Jupiter spins in 9h 55m, Saturn in 10h…