Month: April 2026

Since the Iran War began, the stock market has been unusually volatile, right? Wrong! US equities have been less volatile than usual. The S&P 500 has swung at least 1% between its intraday high and low on 49 days YTD.…

The Friday File: On Earth, a sidereal day, one full spin relative to the stars, lasts 23h 56m. Mercury rotates in 58d 16h; Venus takes 243d (and spins backward). Mars: 24h 37m. Jupiter spins in 9h 55m, Saturn in 10h…

The Treasury estimates 169 million Americans file individual income tax returns/year. On average each person spends 12 hours and 37 minutes on them. That’s 2.1 billion hours, which are worth $45 billion, plus out-of-pocket costs of almost $49 billion, which…

While oil prices have risen dramatically due to the Iran War, US natural gas prices have marginally declined. Moreover, higher oil prices may cause natural gas prices to decline further. Why? Because high oil prices should encourage US oil producers…

In 1/23 non-residential construction spending ex-data centers (NRCSEDC) was up 30% Y-o-Y and data center construction spending (DCCS) was up 43%. In 1/24 those numbers were 11% and 57%, respectively. NRCSEDC remained positive Y-o-Y through 7/24 when it was 0.3%.…

March CPI rose a staggering 0.9% M-o-M, the most since 6/22, and that commensurately reduced inflation-adjusted salaries by almost one percentage point. With Y-o-Y inflation up 3.3%, led by a 21.2% M-o-M rise in gasoline, inflation-adjusted salaries are up just…

The Friday File: This past Monday, the four Artemis II mission astronauts in the Orion spacecraft traveled further from Earth than ever. The previous record was accidentally set by Apollo 13 (during the emergency that prevented their lunar landing) at…

Between CY2022 and CY2023, not only did people migrate between states but so did their income. The state with the largest net gross income migration gain was Florida at $20.6 billion (over 1% of GDP), Texas $5.5B, SC $4.1B (over…

Pre-Iran War, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz totaled 20.5 million bbl/day. About 5 million barrels are now rerouted via Saudi pipelines to Yanbu, while a UAE pipeline to Fujairah carries 500,000 bbl/day. Iran is exporting 1.7 million barrels…

The Fed’s balance sheet is $6.7 trillion, composed almost entirely of Treasuries and MBS. Current Fed nominee Warsh wants to reduce it. To do that we must understand the liabilities these assets offset. They include $3 trillion in commercial bank…