The Friday File: Earlier this week, John Bogle, a crusader for investor’s rights and the man who virtually single-handedly invented index funds, died at 89. His relentless focus on cutting investment fees at his firm (Vanguard), and the reduction in fees at other firms that resulted due to … [Read more...]
Jan
17
Federal Fiasco
The US government directly employs 2 million civilians. Active-duty military number 1.3 million, and the USPS employs 500,000. There are also 1.3 million grant employees, persons paid through a federal grant and roughly 4 million contract employees. The total, 9.1 million persons. My ballpark guess … [Read more...]
Jan
16
Government Games
By announcing he won’t schedule debate on any bills to reopen the government Trump won’t sign, McConnell has empowered the President and reduced pressure on his caucus that would inevitably come from voting on such bills. To wit, the latest polls show just 5% of Americans blaming Congressional … [Read more...]
Jan
15
Confederation Collapse
While unionization has always been low in the US compared to other advanced democracies, trends are similar. Back in 1980, the unionization rate in OECD nations was about 50%; it’s now 18%. In the US, the rate has fallen from over 30% in 1960 to 10% today. Why, better pay and working conditions, and … [Read more...]
Jan
14
Matrimonial Money
While wages of men and women with at least a HS diploma are similar early in life, they diverge dramatically with age. The gap peaks at about age 50 with men earning about $76,000/year and women earning about $49,000/year. However, at all ages there is no gap between single women, single men and … [Read more...]
Jan
11
Super Seattle
The Friday File: After a glorious run of several years as the world’s most valuable company at over $1 billion, Apple has stumbled and lost a staggering $350 billion in value over the past few months on lousy iPhone sales. As a result, Microsoft was tops for the past month but was just overtaken by … [Read more...]
Jan
10
Pad Prognostications
Pending home sales have declined Y-o-Y for 11 straight months, existing sales peaked in 11/17, existing inventory has been rising Y-o-Y for four straight months, and appreciation has been slowing for six straight months. Starts have been flat since 11/16, new sales have been falling since 11/17, and … [Read more...]
Jan
09
Petrol Prices
As recently as 2010, cheap oil was great for the US as oil production was low. However, due to fracking, US production has doubled since 2010 to 11.6 million bbl/day. Lower prices reduce corporate investment which leads to reduced employment. But due to productivity gains, oil field expenditures … [Read more...]
Jan
08
Mediocre Manufacturing
In China, the key private sector index that looks at manufacturing showed activity shrinking in November, the first time since 5/17, and the official government index showed the same, the first time since 2/16. Here in the US, all five Federal Reserve manufacturing indices (Dallas, Kansas City, New … [Read more...]
Jan
07
Terrific Toil
312,000 net new jobs in November, the biggest increase since 2/18, upward revisions totaling 58,000 for September and October, and Y-o-Y wage growth of 3.2%, the best in over a decade, make the November employment report outstanding. Moreover, the unemployment rose to 3.9% from 3.7% because of more … [Read more...]