While AI may lead to sizable increases in labor productivity, that’s no reason to lower rates as Kevin Warsh suggests. Productivity gains may not materialize, moreover the massive investment in AI/LLMs is pushing up prices for energy, chips, electrical equipment,…
January net employment grew by a strong 130,000 jobs. Additionally, the workweek rose 0.3%, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% despite the labor force participation rate rising to 62.5% from 62.4%. Moreover, part-time employment fell by 453,000,…
The preliminary February University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey rose to 57.3, a six-month high, but curb your enthusiasm. The long-run index average is 84.7, and 57.3 is at or below the levels that defined every recession dating back to…
Hyperscaler capital spending on the AI arms race isn’t just breaking records, it’s propping up the economy. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft plan to spend $650 billion in CY2026, mindboggling. Add Oracle and the total hits over $700 billion, 2.2%…
The Friday File: In zip codes where NFL games are played, debit/credit card spending rises an average of 77%. Spending rises the most, 100%, in the AFC South (Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and Tennessee), and rises the least, at barely 50%,…
With Hyperscalers steadily adding new (legal, coding etc.) tools to their AI assistants, software firms including Adobe, Intuit, Salesforce and Workday are collectively down 30% since 9/25. These incumbents will adapt and integrate LLMs into their offerings. These firms have…
Walmart has become the 10th US firm, and just the second non-tech firm after Berkshire Hathaway, to hit the $1 trillion mark. Founded by Sam Walton with one store in 1962, it now has almost 11,000 stores worldwide, revenue will…
In 1980, when gold peaked at $850/ounce, the share of central bank holdings of foreign exchange reserves in gold was 70%. When gold troughed out at $254/ounce in 1999, it was 10%. Today it’s 25%-30%. Central banks are steadily buying…
Last Friday, President Trump effectively nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chairman. Warsh, a former Fed Governor, has aligned himself with the President’s criticism of the Fed and a desire for lower rates. Warsh will now have to…
The Friday File: While Google and NVIDIA are leading the charge and cashing in on AI, there are other unheralded winners. One of the biggest, the British Overseas Territory of Anguilla. It lucked into a fortune when ICAAN assigned it…