In 2018, there were 3.79 million births, a 2% decline from 2017, the fourth straight year of declines, and the lowest level since 1986! Births have fallen in 10 of the last 11 years! Reasons include a decline in unplanned pregnancies, lower Hispanic fertility rates, and more women earning college … [Read more...]
May
20
Inflationary Impacts
The imposition of added tariffs on some Chinese goods and new tariffs on others will boost inflation by 0.1% to 0.3% depending on the inflation measure, with goods inflation and core inflation being pushed up more than services inflation or headline inflation. More importantly, the Fed is very … [Read more...]
May
17
Amazing Art
The Friday File: This past Tuesday, a Claude Monet painting titled Haystacks (of which there are 25, most of which are in one of 15 museums) sold for $110.7 million, a record price for a Monet and for an Impressionist work. Separately, on Wednesday, the sculpture Rabbit by Jeff Koons sold for $91.1 … [Read more...]
May
16
Inversion Impetus
The yield curve inverts if the short end rises above the long end, or if the long end declines below the short end. In the former, the Fed is raising rates to reduce inflation and accidentally drives us into recession. The latter, which we are increasingly experiencing, occurs when growth and … [Read more...]
May
15
Working Women
The share of Americans aged 25-54 in the labor force hit 82.6% in 1/19, the best level since 8/09. The main reason is rising labor force participation of young women. Since the end of the recession on 6/30/09, the only demographic group with a higher rate now than then is women aged 25-34. Men … [Read more...]
May
14
Troubling Tariffs
Existing tariffs on Chinese imports and Chinese retaliatory tariffs reduce US GDP by 0.15 of a point. Last week’s tariff increase from 10% to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods will decrease GDP by another 0.15. A further 25% tariff on another $325 billion of Chinese imports would lower GDP by … [Read more...]
May
13
Nominee Numbers
There are 62 weeks to go until the Democratic convention in Milwaukee. Based on public polling dating back to 1980, polls taken this early have the eventual nominee in first place just 35% of the time. However, these early polls do have the eventual winner ranked in the top three 85% of the time. A … [Read more...]
May
10
Super Sharona
The Friday File: The top single of 1979, forty years ago, was My Sharona by the Knack; written by band lead Doug Fieger. The single sold 500,000 copies and went gold within weeks of its 6/79 release. It reached #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 by August and stayed there for six weeks. Get The Knack was … [Read more...]
May
09
Education Excess
From 2009 through mid-2012, weekly earnings for those with less than a high school diploma declined. From then through late-2017, their wages improved and grew at the same rate as the wages of all others. Since late-2017, their wages have been growing faster than all others. Maybe it’s because since … [Read more...]
May
08
Lousy Lumber
In 5/18, lumber futures hit $640/1,000 board feet. By 10/18, they were half and have largely remained there; mills are closing. New home construction has reduced GDP for five straight quarters and is 3.76% of GDP. At the peak of the boom, it was 6.67%. Moreover, YTD starts are down 9.7%, permits are … [Read more...]