The Friday File: This week, 91-year-old Dale Sanders reclaimed the title of oldest hiker to complete the Appalachian Trail. Grey Beard (his nom de trail) previously earned the distinction at age 82 in 2017. M.J. Eberhart (aka Nimblewill Nomad) surpassed…
Russian exports of diesel remain restricted due to Ukrainian attacks. China has yet to resume petroleum-product exports to Asia at normal levels due to concerns about possible shortages at home. Accordingly, major diesel buyers including Brazil/Europe/India/Turkey are increasingly relying on…
July US construction spending declined 3.8% Y-o-Y and is at $2.2 trillion seasonally adjusted. Public construction was up 1.7% Y-o-Y, largely due to highway/street construction, which rose 4.5% Y-o-Y. Private residential construction fell 7.3% Y-o-Y and is lousy. Private non-residential…
De-dollarization talk has picked up of late due to continued concerns over rising US public debt and whether its growth is sustainable. Recently, two new concerns have emerged. The first: rising investor concerns about the strength of US political institutions…
Troublingly, two powerful US economic/financial officials are having a policy brawl in broad daylight. New Fed Chair Warsh is intentionally reducing public comments/communication to let markets determine interest rates. Conversely, Secretary Bessent is arguing that rising long-bond yields don’t reflect…
The Friday File: The federal government deficit/GDP ratio is 6%. Based on a $32T economy, that’s $2T. Federal government spending is $8T. If we could get the deficit/GDP down to the growth rate in nominal GDP, historically 4%, the debt/GDP…
Single-family housing starts keep falling, and July’s 808,000 annualized are at their second-lowest level since 4/2020! July new-home sales of 607,000 annualized are down 6.3% Y-o-Y and haven’t been consistently this low since 2017. Moreover, median prices are at a…
When WeWork attempted to go public, it cited a total addressable market (TAM) of $3T. Uber followed with $6T and just recently SpaceX called its TAM a laughable $28.5T. But now comes Anthropic, reportedly preparing to claim a $30T+ TAM.…
There’s currently $31.5T of Treasuries, of which $5.75T have remaining maturity of 10+ years. The Fed already owns $1.6T, leaving $4.1T with a maturity of 10+ years that can be bought. In a market that big, buying $2B more does…
Three structural forces are pushing up long rates: the budget deficit outlook, skyrocketing AI-related corporate debt issuance, and the changing nature of the Treasury buyer. In 2009, 40% of foreign Treasuries holdings were in central banks, today it’s roughly 12%.…