Rising longevity puts pressure on Social Security and Medicare, but unequally. Life expectancy for the average 66-year-old increased 2.4 years between 1992-1994 and 2016-2018. Moreover, time spent with severe health limitations fell 30%. Applying 2017 mortality/morbidity patterns to a hypothetical…
Wage growth is running at 3.5% Y-o-Y and home prices at 1% Y-o-Y, but inflation is 4.2%. Moreover, construction spending is down 1.5% Y-o-Y (more after inflation) and payroll growth is barely positive at 0.3% Y-o-Y, the Household Survey is…
While the US is, by far, the world’s largest oil producer, with domestic daily production approaching 13.8 million bbl/day, 42% more than Saudi Arabia, domestic gasoline prices rose quickly when the Iran War began and have remained high. The reason:…
As a response to numerous DC-based pressures, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is considering offering the government a 5% stake in his firm if other AI firms do similarly. Based on OpenAI’s most recent valuation of $852 billion, 5% would be…
The Friday File: Tomorrow is the 250th anniversary of this great nation. Our victory against the British now seems preordained, it was anything but. Between 1775-1783, over 25,000 American soldiers died, 1% of the colonial population, about 3.5 million deaths…
Net June job growth was just 57,000, well below the 113,000 expected and April/May were collectively revised down 74,000. Suddenly job growth/month looks about right based on demographics and immigration policy. Moreover, Y-o-Y wage growth at 3.5% continues to badly…
Conforming single-family delinquency rates are low but very slowly rising and returning to normal. Freddie Mac reports serious delinquencies at 0.59% up from 0.55% Y-o-Y and trivially lower than 0.60% pre-Covid. Fannie Mae’s shows serious delinquencies at 0.58% vs. 0.53%…
Since reaching $18.1 trillion in 4/25, real disposable income remained flat till 1/26 but has since slid to $18 trillion, meaning real income hasn’t risen in over a year. It’s a combination of falling wage growth and rising inflation. Ignoring…
May new home sales slid to 580,000 seasonally adjusted, and are down 7.3% M-o-M, 6.8% Y-o-Y. Sales of completed homes have declined for three straight months and are down over 30% since November. Moreover, the supply of new homes for…
The Friday File: Through the first two-thirds of round-robin play at the World Cup (the first two games), more goals are being scored than in any World Cup since 1958. Goals/match are averaging three, up 23%/game from 2022, and that…