The Friday File: The world’s first St. Patrick’s Day parade (sadly postponed this year) occurred on 3/17/1762 in NYC and featured Irish soldiers fighting for Britain! 32.6 million persons or 10.1% of the US population, claim Irish ancestry, down from 38.7 million or 15.6%, as recently as 1990. Six … [Read more...]

Based on the best data available, Coronavirus death rates are about 0.75% in both China (outside of Hubei Province where China was woefully ill prepared) and South Korea, where testing rates are high. With the number of deaths in the US at 38, I suspect the number of cases is roughly 5,100 or four … [Read more...]

chart February’s net job growth was a shockingly strong 273,000, with upward revisions totaling 85,000 for December and January. Add an increase in the workweek and in pay of 0.3% each, and all looks well. But the survey only includes the first half of February, when equities were dazzling, the … [Read more...]

The chances of a recession have meaningfully risen over the weekend and are now 50%. Driving the rise: an inevitable European recession, soaring Italian fatalities resulting in a rich western democracy locking down all of its population, and a sudden steep decline in oil prices. While the decline … [Read more...]

Oil prices are in freefall; down 50% since 1/1/20. Global demand, which historically annually grows by 1,000,000 bbl/day, is now expected to decline by 100,000 bbl/day in 2020. Making matters worse, because Russia and Saudi Arabia were unable to agree on any sort of production cut, the Saudis are … [Read more...]

The Friday File: There have been a total of 24 James Bond movies, and six actors have been 007. In a recent poll, the most popular James Bond was Sean Connery with 26% of the vote. Daniel Craig was a close second at 21%, with Roger Moore comfortably next at 12%. Pierce Brosnan was favored by 7%, … [Read more...]

Monetary policy becomes toothless as rates approach 0%, but fiscal policy can shine. The government can cheaply borrow to: increase unemployment benefits to those recently laid-off, offer paid sick-leave to those without it who have Covid-19, give zero-interest loans to small business that may fail … [Read more...]

Last week financial markets weren’t expecting any rate cuts, but this morning the Fed did an emergency inter-meeting half-point rate cut! This should reduce tightening financial conditions we are seeing, and boost confidence. As rates are higher here than in Europe and Japan, the Fed is the only … [Read more...]

In January 2018, 70% of workers between 22 and 37 had been with their employer 13 months or more. In 2002 that percentage was 69%. Similarly, in 1/18 28.8% of workers aged 25 to 34 had been with the same employer for five years or more. In 2000, the percentage was 21.8%. Contrary to popular belief, … [Read more...]