• Energy Exporter

    For the week ending 11/30/18, the US exported 3.2 million barrels/day of crude oil and 5.8 million barrels/day of gasoline, refined products. Those 9 million barrels/day of exports exceeded the 8.8 million barrels/day of imports, making the US a net oil exporter for the first time in decades! US oil … [Read More...]

  • Copious Confidence

    According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence rose to 137.9 in October, its highest level since 9/00. According to the University of Michigan, consumer confidence is at 98.60, down slightly from the 3/18 reading of 101.4, the best reading since 1/04. While stock market declines and … [Read More...]

  • Vendor Value

    In 18Q3, the vendor most popularly expensed by business travelers in North America was Uber, accounting for 11% of all transactions. Starbucks followed with 4.09%, while Amazon was third at 4.05%. Delta, American Airlines, Lyft, United Airlines, Walmart, Shell and McDonald’s round out the top 10. … [Read More...]

  • Pricey Pets

    The Friday File: In 2017, Americans spent $72 billion on pets. That is equal to the GDP of the 70th largest nation in the world, edging out Myanmar and Luxembourg. $30 billion went for food, $18 billion for veterinary care, $16 billion for supplies, $2 billion buying the pets, and $6 billion on … [Read More...]

  • Split Sales

    With existing home sales flat in July, and August at a rate of 5.4 million/year (solidly down from a peak rate of 5.7 million/year last November), I think existing sales move sideways from here on. Rising prices, higher interest rates, and tight inventories make a meaningful rise unlikely despite a … [Read More...]


Listless London

Superficially, Great Britain looks good despite Brexit. Unemployment is near a record low, wages are increasing at their fastest pace in a decade, and a huge budget deficit has shrunk. However, best estimates suggest UK GDP is 2% smaller than had voters chosen to Remain. Why? Labor force growth has … [Read more...]


Doing Drugs

The Friday File: During the first five days retail marijuana stores (there are just two) were open in Massachusetts, from 11/20 through 11/24, customers bought $2.2 million of pot and pot products! The average amount spent per item, such as 1/8 of an ounce of cannabis flower, was $39.33. A special … [Read more...]


Insignificant Inflation

Despite excellent economic growth, rising wages, and the lowest unemployment rate in 49 years, inflation remains quiescent. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, core personal-consumption expenditure inflation, rose just 1.8% over the past year, and has been around that level, close to the Fed’s 2% … [Read more...]


Matching Money

World GDP is equal to roughly $80 trillion in nominal terms. One-quarter comes from the US, another quarter comes from Western Europe (about 20 countries) and Canada, another quarter comes from China (about 60% as big as the US), Japan (the world’s third largest economy), South Korea (11th) and … [Read more...]


Decelerating Dwellings

 Builder confidence is at its lowest level since 8/16, housing starts peaked in 1/18, and building permits in 3/18. As for existing housing, sales peaked in 11/17, pending sales peaked in 4/16, prices are rising noticeably slower, inventories are rising, and affordability is near a decade low. But … [Read more...]


Bad Bitcoin

After hitting almost $20,000 late last year, Bitcoin is now trading at about $3,500/coin. Worse, the amount of computing power used by Bitcoin miners to solve complex equations to earn payment in new Bitcoin, and in the process maintain the blockchain ledger, is declining. This suggests the Bitcoin … [Read more...]


Good Gauge

The Friday File: With GDP under attack for focusing on output and not well-being, look to the 2018 World Happiness Report. The happiest nation is Finland, followed closely by Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Switzerland, all small, reasonably homogeneous, wealthy democracies. The U.S. ranks 18th. The … [Read more...]


Terrific Thanksgiving

The average American who travels outside their home county for Thanksgiving departs at 3:40pm today and travels 300 miles before arriving at their destination at 9:40pm, where they’ll stay for almost three days. Every $10,000 increase in county median income boosts distance traveled on Thanksgiving … [Read more...]


Fit Finances

While total household debt rose by $219 billion to $13.51 trillion in 18Q3, the ratio of debt to personal disposable income rose just slightly, from 86% in 18Q2 to 86.54% in 18Q3. This ratio has been remarkably steady since late 2014. It peaked at 116.3% in 2008, just as the Great Recession began. … [Read more...]


Groggy Growth

In 18Q3, GDP in Germany (the world’s 4th biggest economy) shrank at a rate of 0.8%/year, Japan’s economy (3rd biggest) shrank at a rate of 1.2%/year, and China (2nd biggest) grew at a rate of 6.5%/year; slowest since 09Q1. US growth was a strong 3.5%/year in 18Q3 but should slow to 3% in 18Q4. Next … [Read more...]