The Friday File: Since 1968, the Motion Picture Association of America has rated movies. Studios seek movie ratings because major theaters will generally not show unrated films. In 1984, the PG-13 rating began. Since then, very few G or (dreaded) NC-17 rated films have been released. PG-13 movies … [Read more...]

Overall undergraduate populations shrank 4% this fall, compared to just 1.1% last year, and freshman counts declined by a whopping 16.1%, compared to 0.4% in 2019. Overall male enrollment slid 6.4%, and 18.1% for freshmen, while total female enrollment fell just 2.2%, 14.6% for first year women. … [Read more...]

Despite a lack of clarity about who the election winners will be, we can be certain that large fiscal stimulus is a loser. Market hopes of unified government leading to trillions in aid have been largely dashed as divided government is again most likely. Even if one party sweeps both ends of … [Read more...]

Since 1860, a Republican has occupied the White House for 95 years, a Democrat 65. The annualized S&P 500 return during the 65 Democratic years of control was 8.4%, 8.3% when the President was a Republican, a statistically insignificant difference. From 1929-2019 one party controlled both ends … [Read more...]

The Friday File: The percentage of US adults planning to wear a Halloween costume this year is 25%, down from 31% last year. By generation, 46% of Gen Z’ers will dress up, compared to 50% last year. Among Millennials, 43% will get outfitted, down from 50% in 2019. For Gen X’ers, 23% will be … [Read more...]

After declining by a record 9%, or 31.4% if annualized in 20Q2, 20Q3 GDP has come in at a simply stunning 7.4%, or 33.1% if annualized! At this point, the US economy is 3.5% smaller than it was on 12/31/19, and about 4% smaller than it was in mid-March before the onset of Covid-19. While 4% seems … [Read more...]

Conceptual illustration, the rich and the poor. AI and EPS editable files included. Over long periods of time, I suspect income inequality will systematically worsen. When first entering the labor force, workers generally know little and get paid poorly. However, labor productivity of educated, … [Read more...]

In 12Q1, corporate profits surged and hit $1.88 trillion. Real corporate profits have never been higher since, despite recently lower tax rates. It’s because of the business cycle. Early in the cycle, when unemployment is high, wages stagnate and capital captures increases in worker productivity, … [Read more...]

September new home sales came in at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 959,000. While slightly below street expectations, starts are amazingly up 16.9% YTD. But Y-o-Y growth is declining, inventory is up slightly to 3.6 months from August all-time low of 3.4, and sales are 3.5% lower than last … [Read more...]