Despite new auto sales being down but rebounding nicely, car prices are regularly setting price records. In August, the average new vehicle went for $35,420, up 6.1% Y-o-Y. The combination of limited inventory, cheap money, longer-term auto loans, inexpensive gas, and a desire to avoid public … [Read more...]

August’s employment report was strong. 1.4 million new jobs, a higher labor force participation rate, and a decline in the unemployment rate to 8.4% from 10.2%! Ignoring the hiring of 238,000 temporary Census workers, job growth is still down from 4.8 million in June, 1.7 in July. Permanent job … [Read more...]

The Friday File: This Labor Day 67% of us will grill, 36% will watch a movie, 35% will enjoy quiet time, 27% will do an outdoor activity, 26% will attend a party, and 23% will go shopping. In the Before Days, we went to ball games, music & food festivals, county fairs, block and pool parties, … [Read more...]

Prior to the Housing Bust, the US Debt-to-GDP ratio was 35%, and prior to Sars-Cov-2 the ratio was 82%. By the end of 20Q2, it was 105.5% of GDP, a staggering rise resulting from $2.8 trillion in new spending and a decline in GDP of 9%. The last time the ratio was this high - the end of WWII. Among … [Read more...]

After making $2.8 billion in airline ticket change fees in 2019, 15% of all revenue, the three legacy carriers have largely eliminated them (until they reimpose them). Carriers are desperate to encourage air travel, as the airline recovery stalled in early July. Worse, while cheap vacation travel … [Read more...]

Car Costs After essentially flatlining since 2014, used car prices collapsed by about 15% during the Great Lockdown of March/April 2020. Since then, they have staged a furious rally, making up all losses and some. Why? A sudden reluctance to take public transit, a strong desire to decamp to lower … [Read more...]

If Congress and the President fail to reinstitute a federal top-up to the expired $600/week in enhanced unemployment benefits, by January GDP will decline by 1.25%, one million jobs will be lost, and the unemployment rate will rise by 0.75 percentage points. If the top-up is $300/week as per Trump’s … [Read more...]

The Friday File: Prior to Covid-19, the average percentage of out-of-stock items in stores and online at any given time was 6%. Today, 21% of household paper products are unavailable, 18% of household cleaners are not on the shelves, and 18% of canned vegetables are unobtainable. For carbonated … [Read more...]

Today, Fed Chairman Powell made two small but very significant policy changes. Historically, when the unemployment rate got too low, the Fed would preemptively raise rates to reduce potential inflationary pressures. Now, the Fed will let the rate fall until inflation becomes too high. Second, the 2% … [Read more...]