The Friday File: With the World Cup beginning Sunday, here are my odds of victory for the top nations. Brazil 5/1, Argentina 6/1, France 7/1, England 9/1, Spain 9/1, and Germany at 11/1, and the US at 100/1. As for the tournament’s top goal scorer, Harry Kane of England is my pick at 8/1 followed by … [Read more...]

While October retail sales rose 1.3% M-o-M and 8.3% Y-o-Y, these numbers are not inflation-adjusted. After inflation, retail sales have completely flat-lined since 3/21. What is much more interesting is that during 3/21 retail sales were $28 billion/month or 13% above their pre-Covid trend and at … [Read more...]

Strong demand for ultra-low sulfur diesel, combined with reduced global production, has resulted in U.S. diesel inventories, measured in days of supply, being at their lowest level since 2008. Moreover, U.S. refiners have increased diesel exports from 25% to 30% of domestic production to take … [Read more...]

In 22Q3, net export growth contributed 2.8 percentage points to GDP. Since overall GDP grew 2.6%, absent strong net export growth GDP would have been slightly negative. Real exports increased 14.4% during 22Q3 while real imports declined 6.9%. However, with the U.S. dollar surging in value, the U.S. … [Read more...]

Once the third-largest cryptocurrency exchange, FTX recently declared bankruptcy. It’s hard for an honest exchange to fail, FTX wasn’t. It lent billions of its customers’ crypto to a sister firm who used the borrowed crypto to make failed bets. Once this was discovered, the crypto involved, as it … [Read more...]

The Friday File: Veterans Day was first celebrated as Armistice Day on 11/11/19, the first anniversary of the end of WWI, and in 1938 it became an official holiday. In 1954, President Eisenhower changed the name to Veterans Day to honor all those who have served our nation. Today there are 17.4 … [Read more...]

Slightly lower October inflation lets the Fed reduce the upcoming December rate hike from 75bps to 50bps. That said, October inflation was 7.7% Y-o-Y, and while down from 8.2% in September, there’s way more ground to cover. Core also declined, to 6.3% Y-o-Y from September’s 6.6%, the highest rate … [Read more...]

A year ago, 52% of existing homes for sale received multiple offers. That percentage slowly declined to 47% by 11/21 but then quickly peaked at 72% in 3/22, shortly after the Omicron surge. The percentage of homes receiving multiple offers has since declined for six straight months and is now 21%. … [Read more...]

When the President and Senate are Republican, and the House Democratic, the S&P 500 averages a 13.7% return. When everything is reversed, which may happen at this midterm, returns average 13.6%. When the President is a Democrat and the Capitol Republican, the S&P 500 averages 13%. When D.C. … [Read more...]

October net job growth was a strong 261,000, although this is the weakest number since 12/20 and job growth has been slipping since its 2022 peak of 714,000 in 2/22. While unemployment ticked up to 3.7% it remains very low. The labor force participation rate slipped to 62.2%, and wage growth remains … [Read more...]