As a response to numerous DC-based pressures, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is considering offering the government a 5% stake in his firm if other AI firms do similarly. Based on OpenAI’s most recent valuation of $852 billion, 5% would be…
The Friday File: Tomorrow is the 250th anniversary of this great nation. Our victory against the British now seems preordained, it was anything but. Between 1775-1783, over 25,000 American soldiers died, 1% of the colonial population, about 3.5 million deaths…
Net June job growth was just 57,000, well below the 113,000 expected and April/May were collectively revised down 74,000. Suddenly job growth/month looks about right based on demographics and immigration policy. Moreover, Y-o-Y wage growth at 3.5% continues to badly…
Conforming single-family delinquency rates are low but very slowly rising and returning to normal. Freddie Mac reports serious delinquencies at 0.59% up from 0.55% Y-o-Y and trivially lower than 0.60% pre-Covid. Fannie Mae’s shows serious delinquencies at 0.58% vs. 0.53%…
Since reaching $18.1 trillion in 4/25, real disposable income remained flat till 1/26 but has since slid to $18 trillion, meaning real income hasn’t risen in over a year. It’s a combination of falling wage growth and rising inflation. Ignoring…
May new home sales slid to 580,000 seasonally adjusted, and are down 7.3% M-o-M, 6.8% Y-o-Y. Sales of completed homes have declined for three straight months and are down over 30% since November. Moreover, the supply of new homes for…
The Friday File: Through the first two-thirds of round-robin play at the World Cup (the first two games), more goals are being scored than in any World Cup since 1958. Goals/match are averaging three, up 23%/game from 2022, and that…
With equities outperforming despite tariffs, wars, and inflation, a rethink is in order. Maybe stretched tech P/E ratios represent an acquisition premium layered onto a growth premium. Perhaps these firms are profoundly valuable because they will buy/copy/partner with competitors (see…
Fixing market failures is the primary reason for regulation. There are four major ones. A firm that is too powerful (monopolist) is likely to abuse their position. Negative externalities such as pollution are a second failure. A third is informational…
With the median sales price of an existing single-family house at $409,000 in 25Q4, assuming a 3.5% downpayment and a 6.23% interest rate, the monthly mortgage payment would be $2,420/month, versus $1,240 at the end of 2020. Add taxes, insurance,…