A key reason existing home sales have remained lackluster despite record low unemployment and spectacularly low interest rates is homeowners now stay in their homes for about 13 years, up from eight years as recently as 2010. Thus, the inventory of for sale homes has plummeted from 3/100 households … [Read more...]

Last decade, European growth and inflation were decent because excess savings in Germany and the north were matched by excess spending in Greece and other southern nations. Since the sovereign-debt crisis, southern nations have become much more frugal out of necessity, but the north has not boosted … [Read more...]

Despite the GM strike and the loss of 17,000 Census workers, 128,000 new jobs were created in October. Moreover, there were upward revisions totaling 95,000 to August and September. And, the labor force participation rate hit 63.3%; best since 9/13! The only weakness; wage growth is flat at 3%. … [Read more...]

The Friday File: Last week, a small window into the promise of quantum computing was opened. A mathematical calculation that would have taken a supercomputer 10,000 years to solve was done in 200 seconds. Rather than using bytes that are either 1 or 0, quantum computing uses qubits that can be both … [Read more...]

US GDP grew at a modest 1.9% in 19Q3, down from 2% in 19Q2 and 3.1% in 19Q1. As was the case in 19Q2, consumer spending led the way. Other areas of strength; federal, state and local government spending, and a small lift from housing. Unfortunately, business investment was weak, suffering its worst … [Read more...]

Unsurprisingly, the Fed cut rates a quarter-point. But the benefits of the cuts are waning. That’s because home construction has shrunk from about 5% to 3.5% of GDP, the wealth effect has weakened as equities and homeownership are increasingly concentrated among those with higher incomes (whose … [Read more...]

In 1936, the number of pages in the Federal Register (which provides a rough sense of the flow of new and changed regulations) was about 3,000. By 1970, it had grown to 20,000, and by 1980, it further expanded to over 70,000 pages, but fell to 50,000 by 1988. It then inexorably grew and topped out … [Read more...]

In FY2019, the budget deficit was $984 billion, up from $779 in FY2018. This is the largest deficit in seven years, and the fourth year in a row the deficit has risen; the longest stretch since the early 1980s. The deficit has risen 68% since FY2016, a period marked by profoundly low unemployment … [Read more...]

The Friday File: The world’s heaviest pumpkin is 2,625 pounds, grown in 2016 by Belgian Mathia Willemijn. He broke the then record of 2,324 pounds set in 2014 by Germany’s Beni Meier. Meier broke Californian Tim Matheson’s 2013 record of 2,032 pounds. In 2012, Rhode Islander Ron Wallace was the … [Read more...]

It’s earnings season again, however, unlike other seasons, this one lasts all year! It’s because public firms must report earnings within 35 days of the quarter close. Since there are thousands of firms and their quarters end at different times, earnings releases are an almost daily occurrence. … [Read more...]