The Powell Fed has made it clear it will continue purchasing Treasuries and MBS for the foreseeable future and keep short-term rates at rock bottom levels, but will not counter rising long-term rates. This is because financial conditions are loose, and liquidity is plentiful. Moreover, the Fed sees … [Read more...]

Through 20Q2, the value of US farmland was $2.6 trillion, and investment grade bonds (BBB rated debt and higher) were valued at $6.4 trillion. That pales compared to Treasury bonds which were worth $19.9 trillion, and US commercial real estate at $20.4 trillion. Equities were almost double that at … [Read more...]

In 2020, Idaho enjoyed the highest percentage of net migration, with 70% inbound and 30% outbound, a net of 40%. SC followed at 28%, then OR at 26%, AZ and SD at 24%, and AL, FL, NC, and TN at 20%. AR was 10th at 18%. CA at -18%, CT at -26%, IL at -32%, NY at -34% and NJ at -40% struggled most. … [Read more...]

If small changes in price lead to large changes in quantity demanded, think pizza, the item is elastic. Some goods, like gasoline, are inelastic. A change in that price does not alter the amount driven. Some things are infinitely inelastic, like electricity on a freezing day. The price per megawatt … [Read more...]

Had the current minimum wage of $7.25/hour increased annually by the rate of inflation it would now be $9/hour. Since the minimum wage was adopted in 1938, its inflation-adjusted value peaked in 1968 when it became $1.60/hour, about $12 today. Raising it to $15/hour would lift 900,000 out of … [Read more...]

The Friday File: Airplanes are not only expensive to buy, each B-2 costs $2 billion, they are also expensive to operate. The same B-2 costs $63 million/year to operate, the B-52 Stratofortress costs $25 million/year, and the B-1B Lancer, $24 million/year. Fighters are a bit cheaper to maintain. The … [Read more...]

Based on USPS data through 10/12/20, 150,000 persons have relocated from Manhattan and Brooklyn to more bucolic locations. Next, the 31,300 who left Chicago, 27,200 who exited San Francisco, 26,400 who departed LA, 15,500 who decamped from DC, and 14,900 that fled Houston. These are small … [Read more...]

For the nine months ending 3/20, 14% of all homes purchased were priced at $500,000 or more. Between 4/20 and 6/20, that percentage jumped to 25%! Relatedly, since the start of Covid-19 home buyer median income is $110,800 compared to $94,400 for pre-pandemic purchasers. Not surprisingly, the … [Read more...]

This is the 59th US presidential election. The first and only one to be held in an odd numbered year saw George Washington defeat John Adams in 1789. Adams, Jefferson, and Madison followed. Those were candidates! The Adams’ were the first couple to live in the White House. President George H.W. Bush … [Read more...]

The FY2020 (10/1/19-9/30/20) budget deficit of $3.1 trillion more than tripled from $984 billion in FY2019. As a share of GDP, the deficit rose from 4.6% to 15.2%, the largest since 1945. Revenues totaled $3.4 trillion, down just 1% from a year earlier, as revenues from Oct-March rose 6% due to … [Read more...]