In 2018, a volatile year for markets, just 38% of actively managed US stock funds outperformed their passively managed (indexed) counterparts, down from 46% in 2017, a placid year. Over the past decade, just 26% of actively managed funds beat their index benchmarks. Unsurprisingly, managed funds are … [Read more...]

In an amazing turn of events, the US petroleum trade deficit in 11/18, the latest month for which we have data, was just $625 million. As recently as mid-2008 it was a record-high $40 billion/month. What happened? Lower oil prices, down from almost $150/bbl to just $53/bbl, and the fracking … [Read more...]

With San Francisco Bay Area housing prices in the stratosphere, the private sector is now planning to raise $500 million for affordable housing. Assuming affordable housing costs $400,000/unit, this will create just 1,250 units! The real problem: since 2010 the region has gained 700,000 jobs and … [Read more...]

While wages of men and women with at least a HS diploma are similar early in life, they diverge dramatically with age. The gap peaks at about age 50 with men earning about $76,000/year and women earning about $49,000/year. However, at all ages there is no gap between single women, single men and … [Read more...]

As recently as 2010, cheap oil was great for the US as oil production was low. However, due to fracking, US production has doubled since 2010 to 11.6 million bbl/day. Lower prices reduce corporate investment which leads to reduced employment. But due to productivity gains, oil field expenditures … [Read more...]

For the week ending 11/30/18, the US exported 3.2 million barrels/day of crude oil and 5.8 million barrels/day of gasoline, refined products. Those 9 million barrels/day of exports exceeded the 8.8 million barrels/day of imports, making the US a net oil exporter for the first time in decades! US oil … [Read more...]

According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence rose to 137.9 in October, its highest level since 9/00. According to the University of Michigan, consumer confidence is at 98.60, down slightly from the 3/18 reading of 101.4, the best reading since 1/04. While stock market declines and … [Read more...]

In 18Q3, the vendor most popularly expensed by business travelers in North America was Uber, accounting for 11% of all transactions. Starbucks followed with 4.09%, while Amazon was third at 4.05%. Delta, American Airlines, Lyft, United Airlines, Walmart, Shell and McDonald’s round out the top 10. … [Read more...]

The Friday File: In 2017, Americans spent $72 billion on pets. That is equal to the GDP of the 70th largest nation in the world, edging out Myanmar and Luxembourg. $30 billion went for food, $18 billion for veterinary care, $16 billion for supplies, $2 billion buying the pets, and $6 billion on … [Read more...]

With existing home sales flat in July, and August at a rate of 5.4 million/year (solidly down from a peak rate of 5.7 million/year last November), I think existing sales move sideways from here on. Rising prices, higher interest rates, and tight inventories make a meaningful rise unlikely despite a … [Read more...]