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The Friday File: In a cruel twist, Star Trek’s Walter Koenig, Ensign/Lieutenant Pavel Chekov and Patrick Stewart, Captain Jean-Luc Picard in Star Trek: The Next Generation, died this week. Stewart, 86, starred in X-Men and Shakespearean theater. Koenig, 90, also…
Despite a near return to pre-Iran War Middle-East oil exports, crude prices are up 20% of late and near their April peak for multiple reasons. A return to fighting is a distinct possibility, and global oil reserves are way down,…
In 2026Q3, S&P 500 firms are expected to show profits rising 30% Y-o-Y, great news. However, two firms, Micron and Nvidia, make up 34% of the expected increase. Add Broadcom, ExxonMobil, EchoStar, SanDisk, Marathon Petroleum, Meta, Chevron, and Valero, and…
The US population is currently 343 million, while the Chinese population is officially 1.41 billion, 3.7x the US population. Assuming unchanged current fertility and mortality rates and zero immigration, in 2128 China’s population will fall to 174 million, while the…
President Trump recently signed an executive order directing federal agencies to reduce homeownership costs. It includes proactive mortgage insurance cancellation once equity requirements are met, making permanent a title-insurance waiver program for certain refinancings, and having Agriculture and Veterans Affairs…
The Friday File: With 40% of US adults claiming it’s the food they most hate, liver is the champion of reviled food. Second are anchovies, with 36% of adults detesting them. Perhaps unsurprisingly, sardines are third with a hate quotient…
Dating back to 1966, on 12 occasions the Fed raised rates and, in the process, reduced CPI inflation by at least 100bps, or one percentage point. On average, the increase in rates needed from the start of the cycle until…
The FY26 US budget deficit is $1.992 trillion, up 12% vs. FY25. Spending totaled $7.4T, and was up 6%, revenues were $5.4T but up only 3%, half as much as revenues. The deficit exceeds 6% of GDP, up from 5.8%…
The NAHB Homebuilder Confidence Index fell to a dismal 29 this month (neutral is 50), the lowest reading since 6/12. This is the result of a market challenged by rising prices, rates, and input costs, and labor shortages. To attract…
A recent paper puts AI spending between 2025-2032 at $10.3T, an average of 3.63% of GDP/year, bigger than any prior US investment boom; bigger than the railroads (2.2%/year), canals (0.66%/year), electrification (0.5%/year), or interstate highways or dotcom (1.1%/year). The problem:…