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To the surprise of nobody, the Fed kept rates unchanged at today’s meeting. Powell deftly suggested that the Fed could adjust to what comes next, while simultaneously admitting it has no idea what to expect. As for the dot plots…

Unemployment claims came in at 248K for the week of 6/7, tied for the highest level in eight months. The four-week moving average of 240K is at the highest level since 8/23. As for continuing claims, they’re also rising. For…

US imports of goods total $3.7 trillion/year, 12.3% of GDP. Assuming a 10% across-the-board tariff and no behavioral changes, somewhat unrealistic, this would lead to $370 billion/year in tariffs. Assuming they are all passed on to consumers through higher prices,…

The Friday File: Since 1928, the stock market, on average, has returned a superbly spooky 0.09% on Fridays the 13th. On all other Fridays the return is still a ghostly strong 0.05%. That’s because on all trading days the return…

Yesterday, May CPI and core CPI both came in at 0.1% M-o-M, and today headline and core producer price inflation (PPI) came in at 0.1% M-o-M, all below expectations. Better yet, trade services inflation, a proxy for wholesaler/retailer markups, remained…

The CBO recently forecast that if added interest is included, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed by the House will, if it becomes law, increase the national debt by $3 trillion above baseline through 2034. Many have criticized the…

CY2025 looks to grow meekly for many reasons. First, fiscal policy is contractionary primarily due to required repayment of student loans, but also the likely removal of green energy tax credits. Second, tariffs are increasing uncertainty which reduces capex. Third,…

Despite lousy atmospherics, net May job growth was a decent 139,000. But the report wasn’t as strong as the headline. The labor force participation rate slid to 62.4% from 62.6%. Had it remained unchanged, the unemployment rate would have hit…

The Friday File: The James Webb Telescope just discovered the most distant galaxy from Earth, MoMz14. It is just 13.53 billion light years away. It’s also the earliest formed galaxy, coming just 280 million years after the Big Bang, cosmically…

The Fed Beige Book, which comes out every six weeks, is troubling. In January, all 12 districts were growing. In March, four were growing, six were flat and two were contracting. In April, five districts were growing, three were flat…