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December job growth was a listless 50,000. Worse, October/ November growth was reduced by 76,000. While the unemployment rate declined, it did so only because the labor force participation rate fell. More generally, monthly job growth averaged just 29% of…
The Friday File: Rather than making New Year’s resolutions that are avoidance goals such as ‘I will not read economics’, or ‘I will not use my iPhone after 8pm’, try approach-oriented resolutions. They might include, ‘I will eat tofu once…
November job openings sank to 7.146 million, down 303K from October and are down 512,000 in the last two months. They are now at their second-lowest level since 10/20. Moreover, hiring slid 253,000, the biggest one-month decline since 6/24 and…
Two new academic studies analyzing tariffs essentially find that their indirect effects on production, consumption, and employment tend to swamp the effects on inflation. These studies find that tariffs tend to result in milder inflation or even deflation due to…
While AI hyperscalers like OpenAI will earn revenue from subscription fees, that’s almost irrelevant. The main societal transformation will come from AI replacing repetitive human mental tasks, for example, accounting, computer programing, and financial advising, as opposed to earlier technological…
Prior to the S&L crisis/recession of 1980, the bottom 80% of the US population were responsible for almost 45% of consumer spending, and the top 10% for slightly over 40%. Today, the bottom 80% are down to just 37% of…
I wish to take this opportunity to thank you all for your interest in my daily economics blog. All of you enrich my life in many ways and I am deeply appreciative. I wish you and yours the very best…
2026 could well be pretty good economically given favorable household and capex tax policy from the OBBBA, lagged effects of steadily easier monetary policy, and an economic bounce from the government closure. Additionally, federal employment, which shrank by 271K in…
I frequently get asked to suggest books to read to better understand the stock market. Here are three of my favorites, in alphabetical order. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay, Manias, Panics, and Crashes by…
The Friday File: On 12/11/25 the mint sold 696 pennies in 232 three-cent sets. The sets sold for $16.76 million, or 1,676,000,000 pennies. The 232nd set, containing the last three pennies minted, sold for $800,000. The buyer also received the…