70 Words

Super Sales

While October retail sales rose 1.3% M-o-M and 8.3% Y-o-Y, these numbers are not inflation-adjusted. After inflation, retail sales have completely flat-lined since 3/21. What is much more interesting is that during 3/21 retail sales were $28 billion/month or 13% above their pre-Covid trend and at … [Read more...]


Diesel Dearth

Strong demand for ultra-low sulfur diesel, combined with reduced global production, has resulted in U.S. diesel inventories, measured in days of supply, being at their lowest level since 2008. Moreover, U.S. refiners have increased diesel exports from 25% to 30% of domestic production to take … [Read more...]


Export Excellence

In 22Q3, net export growth contributed 2.8 percentage points to GDP. Since overall GDP grew 2.6%, absent strong net export growth GDP would have been slightly negative. Real exports increased 14.4% during 22Q3 while real imports declined 6.9%. However, with the U.S. dollar surging in value, the U.S. … [Read more...]


Crypto Collapse

Once the third-largest cryptocurrency exchange, FTX recently declared bankruptcy. It’s hard for an honest exchange to fail, FTX wasn’t. It lent billions of its customers’ crypto to a sister firm who used the borrowed crypto to make failed bets. Once this was discovered, the crypto involved, as it … [Read more...]


Valorous Veterans

The Friday File: Veterans Day was first celebrated as Armistice Day on 11/11/19, the first anniversary of the end of WWI, and in 1938 it became an official holiday. In 1954, President Eisenhower changed the name to Veterans Day to honor all those who have served our nation. Today there are 17.4 … [Read more...]


Improving Inflation

Slightly lower October inflation lets the Fed reduce the upcoming December rate hike from 75bps to 50bps. That said, October inflation was 7.7% Y-o-Y, and while down from 8.2% in September, there’s way more ground to cover. Core also declined, to 6.3% Y-o-Y from September’s 6.6%, the highest rate … [Read more...]


Minimal Multiples

A year ago, 52% of existing homes for sale received multiple offers. That percentage slowly declined to 47% by 11/21 but then quickly peaked at 72% in 3/22, shortly after the Omicron surge. The percentage of homes receiving multiple offers has since declined for six straight months and is now 21%. … [Read more...]


Political Process

When the President and Senate are Republican, and the House Democratic, the S&P 500 averages a 13.7% return. When everything is reversed, which may happen at this midterm, returns average 13.6%. When the President is a Democrat and the Capitol Republican, the S&P 500 averages 13%. When D.C. … [Read more...]


Loving Labor

October net job growth was a strong 261,000, although this is the weakest number since 12/20 and job growth has been slipping since its 2022 peak of 714,000 in 2/22. While unemployment ticked up to 3.7% it remains very low. The labor force participation rate slipped to 62.2%, and wage growth remains … [Read more...]


Antiquity Anniversary

The Friday File: 100 years ago today, Egyptologist Howard Carter and his team discovered the tomb of Golden Pharaoh Tutankhamun in the Valley of the Kings. It took Carter and his crew almost a decade to catalog the more than 5,000 artifacts found in his tomb. He was born around 1341 BCE, became king … [Read more...]