70 Words

Transposed Trade

In 2019, the US trade deficit shrank for the first time since 2013, from $628 billion to $619 billion; just 1.7%. Exports fell 0.1%, imports fell 0.4%. Imports from China fell 17.6%, but it was made up by a huge rise in imports from Vietnam and meaningfully higher deficits with six other nations. … [Read more...]


Focused Fed

Last week, to no one’s surprise, the Fed left rates unchanged. But due to domestic inflation running well below its 2% target, weak global growth (and specifically weak global manufacturing activity), and now the Wuhan coronavirus, the concern is that weakness emanating primarily from abroad may … [Read more...]


Worthy Work

Net job growth of 225,000 in January, mild upward revisions to November and December, a nice jump in the labor force participation rate from 63.2% to 63.4%, the best rate since 6/13, making the unemployment rate rise from 3.5% to 3.6% a good thing, brands this a solid report. Wage growth remains … [Read more...]


Rocking Rollers

Rocking Rollers The Friday File: The tallest roller coaster in the world is the Kingda Ka at 456 feet in Jackson, New Jersey. It’s held the record since 5/05. The fastest coaster; the Formula Rossa which peaks at 149 mph in Abu Dhabi. The longest coaster is the Steel Dragon 2000, at 8,133 feet in … [Read more...]


Turbulent Tesla

The share price of Tesla has more than tripled since the end of July and Tesla is now the world’s second most valuable automaker at $160 billion, behind Toyota at $200 billion. The only problem: it’s a consistent money loser. It has never made an annual profit, ever, and 19Q3 was only the fifth … [Read more...]


GDP Gouge

GDP Gouge While 2020 US GDP growth should be about 2%, two threats that could meaningfully impact the short run are Boeing, which will reduce 20Q1 GDP by 0.4% and the Wuhan Coronavirus, which may reduce GDP by around 0.3%. Fortunately, the economic losses should be made up relatively quickly once … [Read more...]


Amazon Arrangement

Amazon’s 19Q4 corporate revenue hit $87.4 billion due to robust holiday sales, and operating income was $3.9 billion. These results made Amazon the 4th US firm to have a market cap of over $1 trillion. More interestingly, Amazon Web Services, its’ cloud-computing operation, had 19Q4 sales of $10 … [Read more...]


GDP Growth

The US economy grew 2.1% in 19Q4 and 2.3% in CY2019. While that’s the slowest pace since 2016, it’s the average growth rate since the recovery began in 7/09. Looking to 2020, growth will benignly decline to 2%. Consumer spending remains critical as trade and corporate investment will be mildly … [Read more...]


Brilliant Bryant

The Friday File: Last Sunday, Kobe Bryant, 41, his 13-year-old daughter, and six others were killed in a helicopter crash in LA. Bryant began making history when at 17 he became the youngest NBA player ever. During his 20-year career he was an 18-time All-Star, won five NBA titles, two Olympic gold … [Read more...]


Struggling Sales

US new home sales fell to an annual rate of 694,000 in 12/19; a mildly disappointing end to a dismal decade which saw single-family new-homes sales average just 484,000/year. In the prior decade (2000-2009), single-family sales averaged 901,000, in the 1990s they were 700,000/year, in the 1980s … [Read more...]