In a move hailed as genius, the Disney Corporation is beginning to plan and break ground for a new theme park called Econoworld. It aims to combine the magic of Disney with the unbridled excitement of macroeconomics and piggyback on the growing profile of macroeconomics. Like EPCOT, there’ll be various areas devoted to, in this case, the Fed, currency, equities, banking, international trade, insurance, and more. Happy April Fool’s Day.=!

The Friday File: This past Wednesday, former senator Joseph Lieberman died; he was 82. His political career began in the Connecticut state house in 1970. In 1988, won election to the US Senate, becoming the first Orthodox Jew in the chamber. He then became the first Jewish candidate on a national ticket of a major political party when VP Al Gore selected him to be his running mate in 2000.

The FTC is challenging Kroger’s acquisition of Albertson’s. The FTC claims Walmart/Target aren’t supermarkets, that Sprouts/Whole Foods are premium stores, that Dollar stores are limited, and that Aldi/Lidl are “limited assortment stores.” FTC thus claims this merger of the top two chains will reduce competition and raise prices. Hogwash! Walmart’s share is 28.3%, Kroger/Albertson will be 16.5%. Force targeted divestures to strong competitors wherever Kroger’s and Albertson’s are both present.

The accidental destruction of the critical Francis Scott Key Bridge has rendered the Port of Baltimore unusable indefinitely. The Port is the 11th largest by container imports with 559,000/year 20-foot equivalent units. LA/Long Beach is tops at 8.2 million, then NY/NJ at 4 million, and Savannah at 2.4 million. Supply chains will manage, Baltimore will suffer. The Port directly employs 15,300 and generates $3.3 billion in personal income.

While the economy may be super and an economic soft landing may be right around the corner, U.S. households are increasingly tapping into their IRA/401(k) retirement accounts. In 2018 and 2019 that percentage was about 2%. In 2020, despite Covid, it fell to 1.66% due to all the fiscal stimulus monies. In 2021, it returned to 2%, in 2022 it rose to 2.75%, and in 2023 slightly over 3.5%.

3/21/24 marked the 625th consecutive day of the inversion of the 2-10 yield curve. This means the yield on the 2-year Treasury has consistently exceeded the yield on the 10-year Treasury since early July 2022, breaking the record of 624 days in 1978. Yield curve inversions occur when the Fed battles inflation, and are closely followed since, dating back to 1970, every inversion has preceded a recession.

The Friday File: Between 2000-2023, the average number of UFO sightings per 100,000 persons in the US was 34.3. Lincoln County, NV, where fabled Area 51 is located, is tops at 820.9. Next is Arthur County, NE at 618.6, then Alpine County, CA at 594.1. Sightings are noticeably elevated in the 13 western states and the three northern New England states. The truth, as they say, is out there.

While retailers closed 5,000 net stores in 2019, 6,000 net stores during pandemic-plagued 2020, and several hundred in 2021, since then the improvement has been amazing. In 2022, 1,500 net stores opened, in 2023 almost 500 opened, and YTD, 750 have opened. Combine that with almost no new retail construction allowing oversupply to dissipate, and booming suburban demand and the vacancy rate is below 4.8%, a record low.

Despite many households locking in low mortgage rates, household interest expenses are skyrocketing. In 00Q4, the peak of the dotcom boom, interest expenses/GDP hit an all-time high of 2.2%. In 07Q2, shortly before the onset of the Housing Bust, interest expenses/GDP cyclically peaked at 2.04%. As recently as 22Q1 they were 1.1%, their lowest since 59Q4. However, in 23Q4, interest expenses/GDP were a shocking 2.02% and rising rapidly! Deeply concerning.

The cost to a mortgage lender to complete a residential loan in 23Q4 was $12,485, the second highest level in the history of the series, and up from $11,441 in 23Q3. Unfortunately, revenue per loan barely rose. As a result, each mortgage resulted in a loss of 73bps, up from 34bps in 23Q3. This large loss/loan suggests that despite layoffs and cuts, more cost cutting is ahead.