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While 26Q2 GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized, net exports (think imported semiconductors) subtracted a full percentage point from GDP and inventory drawdowns subtracted another 0.7%. That means final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a rate of 3.9%…
Since 1949 there have been, including the present, 12 bull markets, defined as a rise of 20% or more. The average price return has been 191.6% and the average duration, 66.4 months. Over the same period the average return across…
Comparing women who began taking GLP-1s for weight loss with similar women who wanted to but hadn’t yet started reveals a stark divide. Among unemployed women, employment rates rose 27 percentage points for those taking GLP-1s, a gigantic gap. Similarly,…
When financing conditions are easy and investors expect rate cuts, as was the case early this year, the search for extra income/yield by investors intensifies. Capital moves from Treasuries into investment-grade, from investment-grade to high-yield, and from stronger speculative-grade to…
The Friday File: Last week, Josh Kerr ran a 3:42.66 mile breaking the previous mark of 3:43.13 seconds, set in 1999, by a gargantuan almost half second! During this historic race Kerr ran at an average speed of 15.51 MPH.…
Since 1950, 17 times including this year, the S&P 500 has been up 5%-10% at midyear. The average return during the second half of the year has been 6.6% (better than the post-1949 average of 4.9%) and the median has…
Job growth over the past year has been very weak, yet initial jobless claims have been surprisingly low for some time. While this may indicate a labor market that’s fine, I’m suspicious. I suspect layoffs are not occurring in manufacturing,…
June housing starts blew the proverbial roof off. Headline starts surged 19% M-o-M to 1.427 million annualized units. Regrettably, single-family starts slid 0.2%, continuing their slow, steady 2.5-year deterioration, while the lumpy, noisy, and volatile multifamily sector saw starts soar…
Boomers, those currently between 62-80 years-old, perhaps surprisingly comprise the largest share of US home buyers at 42%. In part, it’s because they (and those over 80) control $110 trillion or about 60% of all U.S. household wealth. With that…
The Friday File: For almost 20 years, the average in Brown University’s Welfare Economics and Social Choice Theory in-class midterm was 65-80. This year it was take-home; the average was 96. Suspecting AI cheating, the same professor who taught the…