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January employment growth was recently reported as 130,000. It’ll be revised, down. Last year, every initial monthly net job growth number was revised down. For example, 1/25 was initially reported at 143,000, the final number was -48,000. In CY25, the…
Although 25Q4 GDP was just 1.4%, half of what was expected (and down from an unsustainable 4.4% in 25Q3), the government closure knocked off 1.2 percentage points. If you remove trade, inventories and government, 25Q4 growth was 2.4% and for…
The Friday File: 2026 is the year of the horse based on the Chinese zodiac. Since 1950, horse years have averaged a return of 6.3%/year, placing it 9th out of the 12 signs. The best is the goat, or shall…
In a shockingly outlandish and unprecedented move, director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, the same guy who was short listed to be Fed Chairman, has suggested that four economists (two of whom are acquaintances) should be disciplined (really?)…
AI is simultaneously creating pricing power and eroding it. In addition to the uncertainty surrounding future cash flows to the hyperscalers, LLMs are extending Big Tech’s dominance by automating and compressing margins for software as service providers (think Adobe, Salesforce…).…
Household equity holdings are now equal to 3x disposable income. This compares to 2x in 2019, and on par with disposable income as recently as 2009, during the Housing Bust. As a result of this massive rise in wealth, a…
Today marks the 147th annual Presidents Day, as Congress officially made Washington’s Birthday a federal holiday in 1879. With passage of the Uniform Monday Holiday Act in 1971, the holiday was moved to Monday. The most popular president is Abe…
The Friday File: For the decade ending Valentine’s Day 2026, the cost of a box of chocolates rose a stunning 218%. The cost of a dinner for two rose less but was still up 160%. A bottle of champagne increased…
While AI may lead to sizable increases in labor productivity, that’s no reason to lower rates as Kevin Warsh suggests. Productivity gains may not materialize, moreover the massive investment in AI/LLMs is pushing up prices for energy, chips, electrical equipment,…
January net employment grew by a strong 130,000 jobs. Additionally, the workweek rose 0.3%, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% despite the labor force participation rate rising to 62.5% from 62.4%. Moreover, part-time employment fell by 453,000,…