REVENUE RECKONING

A recent paper puts AI spending between 2025-2032 at $10.3T, an average of 3.63% of GDP/year, bigger than any prior US investment boom; bigger than the railroads (2.2%/year), canals (0.66%/year), electrification (0.5%/year), or interstate highways or dotcom (1.1%/year). The problem: AI revenue in 2032 needs to be $3.5T or 8.8% of 2032 GDP to justify the sums being currently committed. For perspective, food spending is 9.1%. Investor disappointment seems likely.