Econ70

While Emerson tells us that “intellectual consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds”, what really bugs me is that the trade deficit is perceived as terrible because other nations are somehow ripping us off. However, yawningly large and rising budget…

While sadly inevitable, Moody’s finally joined other credit rating agencies and reduced US sovereign credit to one notch below triple-A. Swelling deficits, a peace-time deficit-to-GDP ratio exceeding 6%, a debt-to-GDP ratio nearing its WWII high, and with lawmakers working on…

The Friday File: In 2024, the Home Depot department with the most sales was not the fourth largest department by revenue, Building Materials at $12.4 billion, or Kitchen at $7.2 billion, Plumbing at $12.4 billion or the second largest department…

In 2022, federal workers with at most a HS diploma (13% of the federal workforce) earned 17% more, on average, than their private-sector counterparts. Workers whose education culminated in a bachelor’s degree (33% of the federal workforce) earned 10% less…

The good news, the S&P 500, which was briefly in bear market territory on “Liberation Day” has made up all losses. Unfortunately, the bond market hasn’t rallied. The 10-year Treasury is 4.5%, where it was a month ago. Is it…

April CPI/core CPI both came in soft at 0.2%. The three-month annualized trend in CPI is 1.6%, core is 2.1%. Y-o-Y CPI slid to 2.3% from 2.4% in March while Y-o-Y core CPI was flat at 2.8%. Moreover, Powell’s favorite…

The unexpectedly large reduction in Chinese tariffs is good. This reduces the overall average import tariff to 12% from 25%. But tariffs on imported Chinese goods remain 30%, the reprieve is only for 90 days, and China hasn’t made any…

The Friday File: Cardinal Robert Prevost is the 267th Pope. He is now Leo XIV. John’s the most common papal name; it’s been used 23 times, followed by Benedict/Gregory at 16, Clement and now Leo at 14. To undoubtedly avoid…

The spring season, when builders sell 40% of their product, is a dud and that’s before tariffs. The number of completed but unsold homes is at their highest since 2009, and months of supply are at 8.3, a level usually…

There are three types of recessions, structural (the Housing Bust/Global financial crisis), cyclical (dot.com bust), and event driven (Covid, and importantly tariffs. Since WWII, the steepest S&P 500 declines (50%) and longest bear markets (23 months) are associated with structural…