Month: October 2024

24Q3 GDP came in strong at 2.8% annualized inflation-adjusted, with consumer spending rising a heady 3.7%, and not one component on the consumer side declined! Capital expenditures rose 11.1% and government chipped in with 5% growth, led by defense spending.…

At the onset of the 2008 Housing Bust, there was an excess supply of houses of 1.25 million, and that exacerbated the subsequent steep decline in home prices. Currently, there is a shortage of housing. Estimates, using very different methodologies,…

While you can get exceedingly wealthy buying just one stock, chances are this approach will fail you. From 1926-2022, over 50% of firms had a cumulative negative total return over their lifetime, 59% underperformed T-bills, a very low bar. Moreover,…

In late August, the Penn Wharton budget model showed former President Trump’s fiscal policies running up the debt by an added $4.1 trillion through 2034, and VP Harris by -$2 trillion. Since then, it’s gotten worse. According to the bipartisan…

The IMF expects 2024/25 global growth to be 3.2%, down from 3.3% in 2023, and well down from the 3.8%/year it averaged between 2000-2019. It sees U.S. growth at 2.8% this year, and in 2025, it forecasts U.S. growth of…

Since the Fed cut rates by 50bps on 9/18/24, the 10-year Treasury has steadily risen from 3.68% to the current 4.23%. This is because investors think the rate cut is better for stocks than bonds because there is now increasing…

Increasing personal income tax rates across-the-board by 10% without any income exemptions would raise $221 billion/year in new revenue. With a $100,000/year exemption, this policy would raise $166 billion/year. With a $250,000/year threshold, revenue growth is $90 billion/year, and at…

From 1973-1983, U.S. oil & gas extraction employment doubled from 130,000 to 260,000. In the ensuing bust, employment sank to 120,000 in 2004. During the shale boom, employment largely recovered and peaked at 200,000 2014/15. It’s since steadily declined, bottomed…

The Friday File: Through the first five weeks of the NFL season, place kicker accuracy has never been better at 86%, and 98% from 39 yards or less. But the real story is kicks of 50+ yards. Kickers are currently…

While inflation is barely 2.5% Y-o-Y, unemployment is just 4.1%, and incomes are rising, voters are sour on the economy. Here, I think, is why. Median income in 2023 rose to $80,610, but it’s still below the 2019 $81,210 inflation-adjusted…