Month: March 2026

Looking back over the past ten oil price shocks dating back to 1986, the average increase in the price per barrel is 115.5%. Before the shock, Y-o-Y core PCE inflation has averaged 3% and at the end of the shock…

From 2010-2022, total hours worked by US workers grew an average of 1.95%/year, real GDP growth averaged 2.35%/year, and 83% of GDP growth was due to working more. For years 2023-2025, hours worked increased an average of just 0.23%/year and…

The Friday File: Not only is coupling activity among college-age Americans down about 50% since 2006, but the more education you have, the less likely you are to get some. Between 2002 and 2023, those 25-35 with a bachelors’ degree…

Gold usually performs well during times of uncertainty, yet it has meaningfully declined since the start of the Iran War, from $5,100/oz to $4,431/oz. Three possible explanations: 1) rising interest rates hurt gold as it pays no interest, 2) gold…

Sixteen minutes before President Trump called off the proposed massive attack on Iranian infrastructure Monday morning, there was a sharp isolated jump in the purchase of S&P 500 e-Mini futures and sale of oil futures. The oil futures sale alone…

In 12/25, construction spending on data centers at $3.57b and at $45.1b seasonally adjusted and annualized, topped construction spending on office buildings at $3.49b and $43.5b SAA for the first time. As recently as 20Q1, office building spending was 7x…

Due the Iran War, global oil supply is down about 10%. Given that the short-run price elasticity of demand for oil is about 0.15, meaning a 1% change in the price of oil leads to a 0.15% change in the…

The Friday File: We know falling cats seem to always land feet first, but why? Physicists and cat-falling researchers find that the feline spine is extremely flexible in the upper thoracic vertebrae, but stiffer and heavier in the lower lumbar…

Beijing is closely watching the current war. They are watching our tactics/strategy, naval power, how much we are running down our ordinance stocks, and critically, how much pain we (think gas prices) are willing to tolerate. If we buckle and…

The US economy has shown remarkable resilience despite tariff shocks, the rise of AI and minimal job growth, reduced population growth due to immigration policies, weak consumer sentiment and a prolonged government shutdown. Despite all this, real GDP is growing…