Month: September 2025

Officially, car prices have remained nearly unchanged for the past two years at slightly below $50,000. But destination fees, whatever they are, are up 8.5%, zero-percent financing is now 3.9%, and base-models have largely disappeared, replaced by higher trim models…

It looks like the federal government will likely shut down on 10/1/25, so get ready for some scary-sounding GDP loss numbers. Don’t believe them. Once the government reopens, all the missed pay and bills get covered. While the initial hit…

The Friday File: A much-popularized 1970s survey claimed Americans were more afraid of public speaking than death. In 2012, an attempt was made to replicate the above results. Fortunately, they were unsuccessful. The more recent data show that when subjects…

The FOMC dot plot (technically the Summary of Economic Projections or SEP) released last Wednesday shows the unemployment rate at 4.5% at the end of this year, and at 4.4% at the end of 2026, barely above the 4.3% that…

Between 2010 and 2019, net household formation averaged 1.1 million/year. In 2020, it shrank by 128,000, but in 2021 and 2022 it rose to 1.48 million and 1.27 million, respectively, and that growth was what primarily drove up home prices…

While August housing starts slid 6% Y-o-Y, all-important single-family starts slid almost 12% Y-o-Y. Worse, housing permits slid 11% Y-o-Y, and at 1.362 million annualized and seasonally adjusted, have been steadily weakening since at least early 2023 and as far…

There is currently movement to end the quarterly reporting requirement by public firms and replace it with semi-annual reporting. It’s argued this will reduce administrative costs and discourage short-term thinking. But six months is hardly long-term, and in the UK,…

The Friday File: Bok Tower Gardens of Florida won the 2025 Waterlily Weigh-Off, the third annual competition hosted by the Denver Botanic Gardens in August. Bok Tower Gardens’ lily pad supported a record-setting 183 pounds before it started to sink,…

With suddenly weak job growth, there is some debate about whether this is due to a lack of demand for workers by firms or a lack of supply due to new immigration policies. Make no mistake, it’s primarily declining labor…

Unsurprisingly, the Fed reduced rates 25bps. What’s surprising; one FOMC member, its newest, sees more than 50bps in cuts this year, nine expect two 25bps cuts, two see one cut, and seven see none. The median is two cuts, but…