Month: April 2025

While a recession may well be in the offing or already here, the dismal 25Q1 GDP reading of -0.3% Q-o-Q annualized in no way feeds that narrative! Imports rose an astounding 41%, which single-handedly pulled GDP down five percentage points,…

While the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has been negative Y-o-Y since 7/22, the recession key is when weakness in leading economic indicators leeches into coincident economic indicators. It appears we are there or very close. The ratio…

Are lower-income consumers buckling? PepsiCo cut full-year guidance citing reduced consumer spending, Chipotle saw 25Q1 same-store sales fall for the first time since 2020. P&G says detergent purchases have declined while retail-card issuer Synchrony is tightening lending standards. Most airlines…

The Friday File: A golf handicap involves the skill of the player which includes past scores and tees used, difficulty and complexity of the course, known as rating and slope, and weather. This results in an “index” derived from the…

Forty-three million Americans have federal student loan debt. The average balance, $37,000. Conservatively assuming 20% or eight million, are 30 days late at least once this year, their FICO will fall roughly 85 points. That leads to a credit card…

If you think market volatility has been unusually high this month, you’re spot on. Through 4-22-25, the average (in absolute value terms) daily return of the S&P 500 has been 2.44%. This is a 3.3 standard deviation event. In the…

As of 2022, federal funding made up 40% of overall revenue in nearly half of US states. Federal funding accounted for the greatest share of state revenue, 50.5%, in Louisiana, 50.2% in Alaska, and 49.7% in Arizona. By contrast, it…

Recently, President Trump suggested firing Fed Chair Powell. A decision in a SCOTUS case may give Trump his wish. If granted, Fed independence will be gone, investors will expect the Fed to do the President’s bidding, short-term rates will fall…

The Friday File: President Rutherford Hayes hosted the first White House egg roll in 1878. Iowa produces more eggs than any state, the next biggest states: Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. Total US 2024 table egg production was 93.1 billion, down…

Hard data like March retail sales remain solid, rising 1.4% M-o-M. The car segment jumped 5.3% M-o-M, building materials surged 3.3%, the biggest jump since 2021, sporting goods gained 2.4%. But households were front-running tariffs. Conversely, soft data like the…