DATA DICHOTOMY

Hard data like March retail sales remain solid, rising 1.4% M-o-M. The car segment jumped 5.3% M-o-M, building materials surged 3.3%, the biggest jump since 2021, sporting goods gained 2.4%. But households were front-running tariffs. Conversely, soft data like the NY Fed’s business services (survey) index was dismal, contracting sharply for the second straight month. The hard/soft data battle rages, with hard fortunately holding sway. But will it hold on?