LOUSY LEADING

While the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has been negative Y-o-Y since 7/22, the recession key is when weakness in leading economic indicators leeches into coincident economic indicators. It appears we are there or very close. The ratio of leading-to-coincident indicators is below 0.9. Dating back to 1975, every time the ratio has been below 0.93, a recession resulted. A recession may not come but be ready.