HAWKISH HOLD
09/09/2026 |
Prediction markets are 50-50 for rate hike next week; I’m less certain. Warsh needs seven of 12 votes including his to get a hike. Hammack/Kashkari/Logan want a hike. Powell/Williams are decidedly neutral. That leaves Warsh needing four votes out of the remaining seven voters (including himself) to get a hike, when not even one has publicly endorsed a September move. I see a hawkish hold, tough talk, but no hike.