Month: August 2025

The Friday File: While Scottie Scheffler has five wins in 19 events this year including two majors, he’s been so consistent it’s staggering. Last weekend marked the 14th straight tournament he has finished in the top 10! Nicklaus was the…

Traditionally new homes have almost always been more expensive than existing homes. However, in July, the median existing home sold for $422,400 while the median new home sold for $403,800. Inventory of new homes at 9.2 months vastly exceeds existing…

At the 3/2000 peak of the dotcom boom, the largest stock in the S&P 500 was Microsoft. It was worth $560 billion and accounted for 4.4% of the index. Today it’s Nvidia, worth $4.25 trillion and 7.6% of the index.…

Yesterday, President Trump moved to fire Fed Governor Cook. Despite the questionable legality involved, and the attendant uncertainty of her status, watch the value of the dollar, interest rates, the term premium, and the US sovereign credit rating. The concern…

July new home sales were 652,000 seasonally adjusted and annualized, down 0.6% M-o-M and 8.2% Y-o-Y. Worse, it now takes builders 2.9 months to make a sale upon completion, the longest duration in over three years. Making things worse, the…

The Friday File: Contrary to what the calendar says (9/22/25), fall commences next Tuesday, 8/26/25, as that is when Starbucks will again be serving their famous Pumpkin Spice Latte. If you think this is early for the rollout, think again.…

The critical thing about Powell’s talk tomorrow is tone. Can he really offer dovish rate guidance? Equities are at/near record highs, credit spreads are near their tightest ever, the dollar at its lowest level in years, unemployment is just 4.2%,…

Pre-2015, wage growth was consistently higher for high-income workers than low-income ones. Starting in 2015, that began to reverse, and during Covid that new relationship was turbo-charged. Income growth for the bottom fifth of the population at times was twice…

During the year ending 7/25, spending increased 2% for the top third of households, those earning over $120,000/year, 1% for the middle third of households, and was zero, or zilch for the bottom third of households, those earning roughly $50,000/year…

After steadily falling since mid-2022, inflation is again rising. Last month, Y-o-Y import prices rose at their fastest pace this year, Y-o-Y wholesale prices rose at the fastest pace in three years, and Y-o-Y wholesale vegetable prices rose 39% last…