Month: July 2026
The Friday File: The first known ambulance service was introduced in Cincinnati in 1865. In 1869, NYC horses were kept harnessed throughout the day to save time. This practice was soon replaced by drop harnesses lowered directly onto each animal…
While 26Q2 GDP growth slowed to 1.5% annualized, net exports (think imported semiconductors) subtracted a full percentage point from GDP and inventory drawdowns subtracted another 0.7%. That means final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a rate of 3.9%…
Since 1949 there have been, including the present, 12 bull markets, defined as a rise of 20% or more. The average price return has been 191.6% and the average duration, 66.4 months. Over the same period the average return across…
Comparing women who began taking GLP-1s for weight loss with similar women who wanted to but hadn’t yet started reveals a stark divide. Among unemployed women, employment rates rose 27 percentage points for those taking GLP-1s, a gigantic gap. Similarly,…
When financing conditions are easy and investors expect rate cuts, as was the case early this year, the search for extra income/yield by investors intensifies. Capital moves from Treasuries into investment-grade, from investment-grade to high-yield, and from stronger speculative-grade to…
The Friday File: Last week, Josh Kerr ran a 3:42.66 mile breaking the previous mark of 3:43.13 seconds, set in 1999, by a gargantuan almost half second! During this historic race Kerr ran at an average speed of 15.51 MPH.…
Since 1950, 17 times including this year, the S&P 500 has been up 5%-10% at midyear. The average return during the second half of the year has been 6.6% (better than the post-1949 average of 4.9%) and the median has…
Job growth over the past year has been very weak, yet initial jobless claims have been surprisingly low for some time. While this may indicate a labor market that’s fine, I’m suspicious. I suspect layoffs are not occurring in manufacturing,…
June housing starts blew the proverbial roof off. Headline starts surged 19% M-o-M to 1.427 million annualized units. Regrettably, single-family starts slid 0.2%, continuing their slow, steady 2.5-year deterioration, while the lumpy, noisy, and volatile multifamily sector saw starts soar…
Boomers, those currently between 62-80 years-old, perhaps surprisingly comprise the largest share of US home buyers at 42%. In part, it’s because they (and those over 80) control $110 trillion or about 60% of all U.S. household wealth. With that…