Month: September 2026
Numerous surveys of inflation expectations of consumers and investors do not show them being worried that the Fed will lose control over inflation. Thus, the breakeven inflation rate, the bond market’s indicator of expected inflation, remains modest. However, investors seem…
The terms/timing of the Paramount settlement with state AGs was the product of shrewd Paramount contract writing. By imposing a staggeringly costly, ticking delay fee on themselves payable to Warner Brothers should the merger be delayed, and then a (clearly…
Every barrel of crude results in gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. If you can’t export diesel, of which we produce a surplus, once storage fills refiners will reduce production, driving up the cost of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel everywhere.…
The Friday File: After tracking every worker and single-manager firm in Denmark between 1992-2007, researchers found when male managers had a first-born daughter, women’s earnings rose 4.1% compared to males, and women employed at the firm rose by 4.5%. Sons…
Domestically generated inflation due to an overheated economy warrants rate hikes. But with the labor market weak enough that wage growth is declining and is now less than inflation, and with house prices barely rising, a hike is a mistake.…
Over the past year, net share buybacks by public firms totaled $961 billion. Unfortunately, while firms are in a good position to know when their shares are frothy, they don’t act like it. For example, share buybacks peaked at $175…
While the AI investment boom has been a key pillar upholding the US economy in the face of numerous headwinds, roughly 90% of high-tech equipment is imported. In 26Q1, AI hardware spending and capex on software, data center construction, and…
The cost of building parking structures will rise 6% in 2026 to $33,300 per space, a dumbfounding $98.75 per square foot. This is due to material volatility, labor shortages, and new mandates for fire suppression and EV charging. San Francisco…
The Friday File: This storm season, which began 6/1/26, has set the modern record for the longest the Atlantic has gone without a recorded hurricane. The prior record latest date was 9/11 in 2002 (Gustav) and 2013 (Humberto). Only in…
The national median residential rent is down 0.8% Y-o-Y to $1,390/month, the smallest Y-o-Y decline since 7/25. Moreover, Y-o-Y median rent growth has increased four months running after declining 12 straight months and bottoming at -1.6% Y-o-Y in 4/26. Still…