Month: September 2026

To no one’s surprise, the Fed raised rates 25bps. The more important issue: what follows. Since the Fed began using fed funds as its primary method for shaping rates back in the 1990s, only once has there ever been a…

In August, money spent/employee on tokens averaged $7,200 among firms in the top 1% of AI users. Spending among the top 10% of firms averaged $680/employee and spending at the median firm was just $13/employee. Moreover, after peaking in March,…

While prices have risen about 3%/year lately, consumers may be focused on the fact that through CY2025 they’re up 28% compared to pre-Covid. And here’s the rub. Despite inflation-adjusted wages rising 2.8% since pre-Covid, 34% of workers saw their real…

The Friday File: Captain’s log, Stardate 5928.5. Sixty years ago this week, NBC aired “The Man Trap,” the debut of Star Trek; the world premiere was two days earlier in Canada. In its short three years, 79 TOS episodes were…

While the US economy is 13x larger than Canada’s, because the two economies have become increasingly integrated — starting with the Auto Pact in 1965, CUSFTA in 1988, and NAFTA — these decades of increasing free trade have resulted in…

Prediction markets are 50-50 for rate hike next week; I’m less certain. Warsh needs seven of 12 votes including his to get a hike. Hammack/Kashkari/Logan want a hike. Powell/Williams are decidedly neutral. That leaves Warsh needing four votes out of…

August net jobs grew a screaming 162,000, and June and July were upwardly revised 55,000. Moreover, the workweek expanded from 34.3 hours to 34.4, and the labor force participation rate rose from 61.4% to 61.6%. The unemployment rate remained unchanged,…

The Friday File: This week, 91-year-old Dale Sanders reclaimed the title of oldest hiker to complete the Appalachian Trail. Grey Beard (his nom de trail) previously earned the distinction at age 82 in 2017. M.J. Eberhart (aka Nimblewill Nomad) surpassed…

Russian exports of diesel remain restricted due to Ukrainian attacks. China has yet to resume petroleum-product exports to Asia at normal levels due to concerns about possible shortages at home. Accordingly, major diesel buyers including Brazil/Europe/India/Turkey are increasingly relying on…

July US construction spending declined 3.8% Y-o-Y and is at $2.2 trillion seasonally adjusted. Public construction was up 1.7% Y-o-Y, largely due to highway/street construction, which rose 4.5% Y-o-Y. Private residential construction fell 7.3% Y-o-Y and is lousy. Private non-residential…