Month: December 2025
I wish to take this opportunity to thank you all for your interest in my daily economics blog. All of you enrich my life in many ways and I am deeply appreciative. I wish you and yours the very best…
2026 could well be pretty good economically given favorable household and capex tax policy from the OBBBA, lagged effects of steadily easier monetary policy, and an economic bounce from the government closure. Additionally, federal employment, which shrank by 271K in…
I frequently get asked to suggest books to read to better understand the stock market. Here are three of my favorites, in alphabetical order. Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles Mackay, Manias, Panics, and Crashes by…
The Friday File: On 12/11/25 the mint sold 696 pennies in 232 three-cent sets. The sets sold for $16.76 million, or 1,676,000,000 pennies. The 232nd set, containing the last three pennies minted, sold for $800,000. The buyer also received the…
The Evergreen File: Last year, Christmas tree prices peaked on 11/28 at $142, and then steadily slid to under $58 on Christmas eve. This suggests buying late is the best strategy. But, if you calculate the cost of each “house…
25Q3 GDP expanded at 4.3% annualized vs. 25Q2’s 3.8%; the best quarter since 23Q3. But it’s three-month-old data. Since Trump’s return, GDP growth has averaged 2.5%, slightly ahead of the 2004 pace of 2.4% during the Biden administration. 25Q4 will…
While job growth data is distorted, the trend is what matters, and it’s lousy. In 11/21 Y-o-Y net job growth was 4.5%, a year later it was strong at 3.4%, but by 11/23 was a normal 1.6%. Regrettably, it continued…
The Friday File: Last Saturday in Washington, DC, 1,435 couples simultaneously smooched for five seconds under the “National Mistletoe,” a 30-foot-high orb of greenery, flowers, and a jingle bell. In the process they set the Guinness World Record for most…
November CPI came in at 2.7% Y-o-Y, down from 3% in September (there was no October report), and core CPI was 2.6%, the lowest annual rate since 4/21. Great news but wait. The shutdown prevented data collection efforts from commencing…
Following the recent data dump, it’s clear the labor market continues to cool. The unemployment rate is at 4.6% and is rising almost fast enough to heighten recession concerns. Moreover, manufacturing employment is declining, annual wage growth softens, and November’s…