Month: December 2025

Construction job openings fell from 249,000 on 9/30/25 to 213,000 on 10/31/25, pushing the job openings rate from 2.9% to 2.5%, the lowest October level since 2015. Similarly, hires slipped from 323,000 on 9/30/25 to 313,000 on 10/31/25, pushing the…

Since the Fed’s first rate cut of this cutting cycle on 9/18/24, the 10-year Treasury has risen 50bps. Historically, after 175bps of cuts the 10-year is 30bps lower. What we’re witnessing is unusual. It’s either investor fears about fiscal profligacy…

The Friday file: Hanukkah starts Sunday night, last year it began on Christmas day. It starts on different days on the Gregorian calendar but always starts on the 25th of Kislev in the Hebrew calendar. The reason it varies is…

Netflix or Paramount, who should get Warner? Money is no object for either bidder. If Netflix, the #1 streaming service buys the #4 streaming service, that’s somewhat troubling. But so is the fact that Paramount’s bid, which would combine the…

Unsurprisingly, the Fed lowered rates by 25bps because ongoing labor market deterioration concerns more members of the Fed than the elevated inflation levels. Despite heated rhetoric about strong reluctance to cut more, like what was said in October, they’ll cut…

Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, was 2.8% Y-o-Y in September (yes September), down from August’s 2.9%. Better yet, core PCE came in at 0.2% M-o-M for the fourth time in five months. The three-month trend is running at…

Don’t be fooled by the initial jobless claims data, because companies are reducing employment without layoffs. Businesses are closing positions that become vacant. So, while there may not be a “firing cycle,” there is indeed an “attrition cycle” amongst us.…

Import prices are where at least some tariff impacts would manifest themselves. Yet M-o-M September import inflation was 0.0%, August was a miniscule 0.1%, and July was 0.3%, it appears to be declining. Additionally, Y-o-Y import inflation is a benign…