POWELL PERSUASION
12/08/2025 |
Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, was 2.8% Y-o-Y in September (yes September), down from August’s 2.9%. Better yet, core PCE came in at 0.2% M-o-M for the fourth time in five months. The three-month trend is running at a benign 2.2% annualized pace. Expect a Fed cut. However, getting the cut past a hesitant/averse board may require Powell to underline reluctance to soon cut again, a hawkish stance.