Month: June 2026

Since reaching $18.1 trillion in 4/25, real disposable income remained flat till 1/26 but has since slid to $18 trillion, meaning real income hasn’t risen in over a year. It’s a combination of falling wage growth and rising inflation. Ignoring…

May new home sales slid to 580,000 seasonally adjusted, and are down 7.3% M-o-M, 6.8% Y-o-Y. Sales of completed homes have declined for three straight months and are down over 30% since November. Moreover, the supply of new homes for…

The Friday File: Through the first two-thirds of round-robin play at the World Cup (the first two games), more goals are being scored than in any World Cup since 1958. Goals/match are averaging three, up 23%/game from 2022, and that…

With equities outperforming despite tariffs, wars, and inflation, a rethink is in order. Maybe stretched tech P/E ratios represent an acquisition premium layered onto a growth premium. Perhaps these firms are profoundly valuable because they will buy/copy/partner with competitors (see…

Fixing market failures is the primary reason for regulation. There are four major ones. A firm that is too powerful (monopolist) is likely to abuse their position. Negative externalities such as pollution are a second failure. A third is informational…

With the median sales price of an existing single-family house at $409,000 in 25Q4, assuming a 3.5% downpayment and a 6.23% interest rate, the monthly mortgage payment would be $2,420/month, versus $1,240 at the end of 2020. Add taxes, insurance,…

Legendary central banker Alan Greenspan died today at 100. He led the Fed for 18.5 years, second longest tenure ever. His successes: allowing the economy to shine in the 1990s, saving the global economy following Long-Term Capital Management’s collapse, his…

The Friday File: Uruguay produces more top soccer players/capita than any nation at 11.3, then Croatia 4.81, Netherlands 4.58, and Argentina 3.82. After accounting for GDP based on PPP, Europe but especially LatAm massively outperforms. Partly it’s because Europe/LatAm have…

By just about any measure, US equity valuations are highly elevated. Dating back to 1900, the trailing P/E ratio is currently at its third highest reading ever. The Shiller CAPE ratio is at it second highest ever, and trend P/E…

Fed Chair Warsh made it clear in his first meeting that regime change is in. Of the 19 persons on the committee, 18 provided rate/inflation/GDP projections. The press statement was 130 words versus 341 words for Powell’s last, and it…