FIDGETING FED

Unsurprisingly, the Fed reduced rates 25bps. What’s surprising; one FOMC member, its newest, sees more than 50bps in cuts this year, nine expect two 25bps cuts, two see one cut, and seven see none. The median is two cuts, but the dispersion is gigantic. It’s because equity markets are setting records, inflation is rising, and OBBBA tax cuts will be stimulative. However, the labor market weakens. A mildly/slightly hawkish cut.