U.S. Capitol building at sunset, reflection.

GOVERNMENT GONE

It looks like the federal government will likely shut down on 10/1/25, so get ready for some scary-sounding GDP loss numbers. Don’t believe them. Once the government reopens, all the missed pay and bills get covered. While the initial hit sounds bad, most of it gets recouped. At worst, shutdowns cost $1 billion/day. Even a 35-day one, the longest ever, will dent GDP by just 0.12%. Quite manageable.

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