REMARKABLE RESILIENCE

The US economy has shown remarkable resilience despite tariff shocks, the rise of AI and minimal job growth, reduced population growth due to immigration policies, weak consumer sentiment and a prolonged government shutdown. Despite all this, real GDP is growing at 2%/year. Now the economy faces higher oil prices and inflation, deteriorating conditions in private equity/debt markets, and the prospect of no rate cuts. I’m optimistic but reasonably concerned.