Econ70
The Fed’s balance sheet is $6.7 trillion, composed almost entirely of Treasuries and MBS. Current Fed nominee Warsh wants to reduce it. To do that we must understand the liabilities these assets offset. They include $3 trillion in commercial bank…
March net employment growth was a powerful 178,000, but Jan/Feb were lowered 69,000, and while the unemployment rate declined from 4.4% to 4.3%, it’s because the participation rate eased to 61.9% from 62%. Moreover, the workweek shrank to 34.2 hours,…
The Friday File: While many have trekked across the US, Jack Kadis is currently attempting to walk the perimeter of the mainland US. That distance is roughly 11,500 miles. Jack is walking 11 miles/day and at that rate it will…
The Canadian February trade deficit came in at -C$5.7 billion, up from January’s -C$4.8. The big story is the huge change in trading patterns. Exports to non-US nations hit a record high in February and were up 10.5% M-o-M to…
In a groundbreaking effort to deal with illegal immigration, President Trump is proposing that rather than deporting these individuals, they become full-time IRS employees. While unorthodox, surveys suggest this proposal is popular with taxpayers and will improve customer service and…
Looking back over the past ten oil price shocks dating back to 1986, the average increase in the price per barrel is 115.5%. Before the shock, Y-o-Y core PCE inflation has averaged 3% and at the end of the shock…
From 2010-2022, total hours worked by US workers grew an average of 1.95%/year, real GDP growth averaged 2.35%/year, and 83% of GDP growth was due to working more. For years 2023-2025, hours worked increased an average of just 0.23%/year and…
The Friday File: Not only is coupling activity among college-age Americans down about 50% since 2006, but the more education you have, the less likely you are to get some. Between 2002 and 2023, those 25-35 with a bachelors’ degree…
Gold usually performs well during times of uncertainty, yet it has meaningfully declined since the start of the Iran War, from $5,100/oz to $4,431/oz. Three possible explanations: 1) rising interest rates hurt gold as it pays no interest, 2) gold…
Sixteen minutes before President Trump called off the proposed massive attack on Iranian infrastructure Monday morning, there was a sharp isolated jump in the purchase of S&P 500 e-Mini futures and sale of oil futures. The oil futures sale alone…