DECEIVING DATA

July retail sales rang in at a dismal -0.6% M-o-M, and, adjusted for inflation, were slightly worse at -0.7%. Moreover, the “control group” retail sales number, which feeds directly into the personal consumption segment of GDP, contracted 0.4%. But don’t despair. Retail sales have exhibited flat to slow growth since 4/21, after skyrocketing during Covid. Nonetheless, they remain on their pre-covid trend and total household spending continues growing steadily.