TIGHTENING TOLL
10/22/2026 |
Dating back to 1966, on 12 occasions the Fed raised rates and, in the process, reduced CPI inflation by at least 100bps, or one percentage point. On average, the increase in rates needed from the start of the cycle until inflation fell 100bps was 200bps. In 2016/17 rates rose the least, 60bps, in 1979/80 they rose the most, 640bps. This suggests the Fed has a lot more work to do.