70 Words

In 12/25, construction spending on data centers at $3.57b and at $45.1b seasonally adjusted and annualized, topped construction spending on office buildings at $3.49b and $43.5b SAA for the first time. As recently as 20Q1, office building spending was 7x…

Due the Iran War, global oil supply is down about 10%. Given that the short-run price elasticity of demand for oil is about 0.15, meaning a 1% change in the price of oil leads to a 0.15% change in the…

The Friday File: We know falling cats seem to always land feet first, but why? Physicists and cat-falling researchers find that the feline spine is extremely flexible in the upper thoracic vertebrae, but stiffer and heavier in the lower lumbar…

Beijing is closely watching the current war. They are watching our tactics/strategy, naval power, how much we are running down our ordinance stocks, and critically, how much pain we (think gas prices) are willing to tolerate. If we buckle and…

The US economy has shown remarkable resilience despite tariff shocks, the rise of AI and minimal job growth, reduced population growth due to immigration policies, weak consumer sentiment and a prolonged government shutdown. Despite all this, real GDP is growing…

Since the start of the Iran engagement, 30-year mortgage rates have meaningfully risen. Surging oil prices and uncertainty about the duration/ramifications of the hostilities on inflation/growth/unemployment etc. have put upward pressure on overall interest rates and have also significantly increased…

The Federal Reserve is finding itself in an increasingly unpleasant spot. Their preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE, rang in at 3.1% Y-o-Y in January, up from 3% in December, well above the Fed 2% target and pre-Iran conflict inflationary…

The Friday File: Last year the percentage of Americans who read at least one book was just 60%. However, the median number of books read by all Americans was two, and the average was eight. These numbers look so good…

Homeowners in the bottom 20% of the credit score distribution (think FICO) pay 25% more for homeowner’s insurance than the top 20%. The higher prices aren’t the result of deferred maintenance or disputed claims. Rather, insurers expect lower-credit homeowners to…

While talk of stagflation, high inflation and high unemployment, is suddenly pervasive after last week’s lousy jobs report and rising oil prices, I remain skeptical. Oil futures for 3/27 are trading at $68/bbl. Last month, 3/27 contracts were trading at…