CONFOUNDING CONDITIONS

March economic data has been excellent but may be quite misleading. Housing starts were hot, employment growth was excellent and retail sales rocked, but income tax refunds supported spending, households are stockpiling in anticipation of war-related price hikes, and there was the weather. The temperature was three standard deviations above normal and rainfall was two SD below. In 13Q1 there was also magnificent weather, and growth quickly sagged in 13Q2.