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February CPI inflation was a light 0.2% M-o-M and 2.8% Y-o-Y, core was also 0.2% M-o-M but 3.1% Y-o-Y. All readings were better than last month. Fuel price declines helped, as did slowing rents. And Powell’s “super-core” index, which is…

If de-risking from China matters, then Mexico is a strategic, low-wage alternative, and thus imposing tariffs on Mexico makes no sense. Relatedly, why impose tariffs on industries in which we don’t compete, such as potash, or low margin car parts?…

February net job growth was a decent 151,000, January was revised down by 18,000 to 125,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% despite the labor force participation rate sliding from 62.6% to 62.4%. Mild continued weakening is visible. Critically,…

The Friday File: Of the nation’s 50 busiest airports, the one with the costliest average ticket in 24Q3 is Reagan Washington National at $473, followed by Orange County John Wayne at $428, then San Francisco at $425. The cheapest is…

Twenty percent of US oil consumption is reliant on Canadian imports, because despite the fracking revolution, pipeline capacity constraints mean the Midwest/Northeast depend heavily on Canadian crude and natural gas. Furthermore, Gulf Coast/Midwest refineries are designed only to process heavy…

As part of reconciliation, Republicans must find $880 billion in Medicaid savings through 2035. Talk about tough. Currently Medicaid covers 72 million people. Fraud is estimated to be maximally $31 billion/year. Work requirements might save $100 billion over a decade.…

On Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick proposed separating government spending, 23.3% of GDP including Social Security, Medicare, defense, and more from GDP reports. This proposition is best avoided. Once data quality is compromised, faith in other data will be impugned,…

It’s still early, with partial data available only through January, but 25Q1 GDP estimates are tracking as low as -2.8%. Consumer spending shrank, the advance trade deficit skyrocketed to -$153.3 billion, pending home sales are at their worst level in…

The Friday File: During the 1983/84 hockey season, fighting peaked at 1.17 fights/game. From 1983/84 through 2009/10, fighting declined to 0.6 fights/game. Since then, fighting has halved again and since 2017/18 has averaged about 0.2 fights/game. It’s due to a…

Despite nominal GDP growth of $4.9 trillion since 2022, there has been minimal growth in government revenues. Had the government simply allowed the revenue base to rise with nominal GDP, the deficit would be $860 billion or 37% lower than…