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In the first four months of FY25, the budget deficit totaled $838 billion; $306 billion more Y-o-Y. Revenues were $11 billion higher, outlays were $317 billion higher. But some of the increase was due to calendar effects. Absent them the…

By reducing US demand for imports, tariffs reduce the supply of dollars flowing to foreigners. That reduced supply raises the foreign exchange value of the dollar. While a stronger dollar reduces inflation, it makes US exports more expensive. This partly…

January net job growth was a decent 143,000, Nov/Dec were upwardly revised by 100,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4%, its best level since 5/24. But the workweek slid to 34.1 hours, the lowest reading since 3/20, and quite…

The Friday File: Coffee futures just touched a new all-time high, almost $4/pound, foreshadowing significant consumer pain in the coming months. It’s because Brazil is coming off a lousy crop. And with wholesale eggs at over $7/dozen, breakfast may now…

Pending home sales slipped 5.5% M-o-M in December and slid 5% Y-o-Y. This isn’t surprising, given the nearly one percentage point rise in 30-year mortgage rates since the recent low of 6.08% for the week ending 9-26-24. Moreover, absent seasonal…

While the Fed’s favorite inflation measure came in at 0.2% for December (the unrounded number was 0.156%), the six-month rate is running at 2.3%, and the three-month at 2.2%, very close to the Fed’s 2% target. Better yet, while labor…

While 24Q4 GDP came in at a slightly disappointing 2.3% annualized rate, down from 3.1% in 24Q3, and 24Q4 expectations of 2.6%, consumer spending, which represents almost 70% of GDP was up a very strong 4.2%. Moreover, the Fed’s favorite…

While US exports to Canada and Mexico are both about 1% of GDP, or $315 billion/year, do not be dismissive. Canada accounts for 60% of all US crude oil imports, about 3.8 million bbl/day. As for Mexico, they account for…

The Friday File: Since 1930, the year of the pig has had the best S&P 500 average annual return at a snorting 15%. In second, the rooster/rabbit, both at 12%/year. The tiger follows at 10%/year, the rat returns 9%/year, and…

While initial claims for unemployment remain steady, low, and no different than they were pre-Covid, at about 220,000 claims/week, it’s continuing claims that are raising mild alarm bells. From mid-2018 until Covid they were generally below 1.7 million/week. Since bottoming…