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December new homes sales jumped 3.6% M-o-M to 698,000 annualized units. That reduced builder inventory from 8.7 months in November to 8.5 months. However, it’s taking homebuilders longer to sell completed homes, 2.8 months in December versus 2.5 months in…

The US federal budget deficit for FY25Q1 was a staggering $711 billion. The FY25Q1 deficit was $201 billion or 39% higher than the $510 billion deficit of FY24Q1. Spending was $1.8 trillion, up 11%, while revenues were $1.1 trillion, down…

December existing home sales rose 2.2% M-o-M and 9.2% Y-o-Y, the third straight month of rising Y-o-Y sales after declining Y-o-Y for over three straight years. However, 2024 existing home sales fell to their lowest level since 1995, when the…

The Friday File: The longest presidential inaugural speech was by William Henry Harrison at 8,445 words, it was delivered on a bitterly cold, wet day. He died a month later of pneumonia. The shortest was Washington’s second inaugural address at…

In 2024, the income needed to buy a median priced home of $429,734 and spend no more than 30% of income on housing was $116,782. A buyer with the median income of $83,782, would have to spend 41.8% of their…

In 2024 and 2023, only 29% of firms in the S&P 500 index beat the index. This lopsidedness means relatively few companies are doing very well, and a majority are performing below average. From 2000-2022, the percentage was about 50%,…

While the LA fires are likely to go down as the costliest climate disaster in US history, and may top $300 billion, 1% of GDP, the national economic impact is likely to be small. Maybe a 0.2% drag in GDP…

December housing starts were a surprisingly strong 1.499 million units seasonally adjusted and annualized, up 51.3% M-o-M. But three things make this number suspect. First, two-thirds of the rise came in the South where hurricanes Helene and Milton did extensive…

The Friday File: After peaking mid-last decade at 91.5%, the percentage of shots saved by goaltenders has steadily declined and last year reached a 19-year low of 90.3%. Players are taking 10% fewer shots, most of which are easy to…

While just a week old, $9 congestion pricing is having the desired effect in NYC. Cars entering NYC south of 60th Street fell 8% compared to the average January workday from 2022-2024. But that small decline has drastically reduced travel…