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Looking at a graph of yields on US Treasurys, one is immediately confronted with the fact we are now in the sixth year of the third Treasury Great Bond Bear Market (GBBM) since 1790. The first GBBM was from 1899…
The PCE has, since 2000, been the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. There are several key differences between it and the CPI. The PCE includes things you consume but don’t buy. Thus, healthcare is 16% of the PCE but 7% of…
Net December employment growth blew past expectations with a rise of 256,000 jobs, the largest rise since 3/24. Moreover, the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% and Oct/Nov revisions were insignificant. This is evidence that the labor market has tightened and…
The Friday File: I am frequently asked about books to read so here are a few recommendations that have withstood the test of time. Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, The Ascent of Money by Niall Ferguson, World Order…
Since 1874, a period of 151 years, the S&P 500 has averaged a return of 9.4%. The median return is between 0%-10% and the modal return, the return that is most common, is between 10%-15%. For 2025, the consensus predicts…
Y-o-Y home price appreciation, according to the Case-Shiller National Index, was 4.2% in October, down from 4.6% in September, and 5.2% in August. It’s now been slowing Y-o-Y for seven straight months; appreciation is returning to its pre-Covid norm. As…
Many economic pundits are excited that the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a key manufacturing index, jumped to 49.3 (anything under 50 is contractionary) reaching its second-best reading since late 2022. Hold on to the corded kitchen telephone. It’s up because EV…
From 1999-2007, median family wealth was $50,000. From 2008 through 2014 it doubled to $100,000, where it remained through 2018. From 2019 through 2022 it vacillated substantially but nonetheless rose to $125,000. However, starting in 2023 through the end of…
The Friday File: 48% of TikTok influencers earn under $15,000/year. 9% earn between $15,000/year and $25,000/year, 7% earn between $25,000/year and $35,000/year, and 5% earn $35,000/year to $50,000/year. 11%, the biggest category, earn $50,000/year to $75,000/year, and 5% earn between…
Looking at 24Q4 GDP growth, estimates are literally all over the place. At the top end, the Atlanta Fed Nowcast model is at a robust 3.1%, while the NY Fed’s Nowcast model is at a solid 1.9%. However, the St.…