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The recent steepening of the yield curve and the astounding and quick rise in 10-year and 30-year Treasury rates suggest several all-bad possibilities. Is there concern that a recession could strain federal government resources? Is China selling Treasuries? Is everyone…
While “Drill Baby Drill” is the mantra, crying in their beer may be the reality. OPEC has recently reopened the spigots boosting supply, pushing down oil prices. Moreover, the tariff announcement has triggered fears of trade wars which would reduce…
Imports are 11% of GDP, and GDP is $30 trillion, making imports $3.3 trillion. As it now stands, the average tariff on imports is 24%. That results in $792 billion in tariffs. But there will of course be behavioral changes…
The Friday File: On Tuesday, Senator Corey Booker (D-NJ) gave the longest Senate speech ever: 25 hours and four minutes. This broke the previous record of 24 hours and 18 minutes set by Senator Thurmond in 1957 while filibustering the…
Tariff totals Trump 1.0 boosted tariffs from 1.2% to 3.2%. Yesterday, he boosted the average tariff on US imported goods to 24%, higher than the disastrous 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, and international trade is proportionally 3x larger than then. The…
Earlier today, President Trump imposed tariffs on the vast majority of imports entering the US. Retaliation from Canada, China, the EU, and other nations is now guaranteed. This trade war will reduce trade, raise prices, increase unemployment, and weaken economic…
In a brilliant move to increase transparency and worker productivity, the IRS will now allow payment of income taxes with Bitcoin, joining other nations including El Salvador. This move will cement the US as a crypto powerhouse, bring riches to…
The Fed’s favorite inflation measure, core PCE, came in slightly hot at 0.4% in February, up from 0.3% in January. Y-o-Y inflation was also elevated at 2.8%, up from 2.7% M-o-M. Worse, over the last six months annualized inflation is…
The Friday File: In the early 1990s there were about 9,000 bank robberies/year. By the early 2000s, robberies were about 8,000/year. By 2010, they slid to 6,000/year, and in 2023 robberies numbered just 1,362. Why the huge decline? Less money…
On 12/31/24, US households held $38 trillion in public firm equities, 1.7 times disposable income. During the late 1960s, during the Dotcom Boom, and as recently as 2020, it reached but never exceeded 1.2. A decline in equity prices, now…