RECESSION REPERTOIRE

There are three types of recessions, structural (the Housing Bust/Global financial crisis), cyclical (dot.com bust), and event driven (Covid, and importantly tariffs. Since WWII, the steepest S&P 500 declines (50%) and longest bear markets (23 months) are associated with structural recessions, the shallowest declines (26%) and shortest duration (7 months) are event driven, with cyclical recession in the middle on both counts (at 28% and 15 months respectively).