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There are three types of recessions, structural (the Housing Bust/Global financial crisis), cyclical (dot.com bust), and event driven (Covid, and importantly tariffs. Since WWII, the steepest S&P 500 declines (50%) and longest bear markets (23 months) are associated with structural…

Last Friday the S&P 500 rose for the ninth day in a row, the first time this has occurred since late 2004, over 20 years ago. During this same period, the S&P 500 has risen exactly eight times in a…

April net job growth came in solid at 177,000. Critically, monthly job numbers are for the pay period including the 12th and thus are for early April, at most two weeks after “Liberation Day.” They tell us nothing — good…

The Friday File: During the first 100 days of Trump 2.0, the president signed 142 executive orders. In distant second, FDR with merely 99. In third, Joe Biden with 42, then Trump 1.0 with 33 EOs. LBJ is fifth at…

While index funds give investors nothing more than the market return, that return is stellar. Over a 1-year period, just 21% of managed funds beat their benchmark index. The longer the holding period, the worse the managers do. Over a…

While a recession may well be in the offing or already here, the dismal 25Q1 GDP reading of -0.3% Q-o-Q annualized in no way feeds that narrative! Imports rose an astounding 41%, which single-handedly pulled GDP down five percentage points,…

While the Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has been negative Y-o-Y since 7/22, the recession key is when weakness in leading economic indicators leeches into coincident economic indicators. It appears we are there or very close. The ratio…

Are lower-income consumers buckling? PepsiCo cut full-year guidance citing reduced consumer spending, Chipotle saw 25Q1 same-store sales fall for the first time since 2020. P&G says detergent purchases have declined while retail-card issuer Synchrony is tightening lending standards. Most airlines…

The Friday File: A golf handicap involves the skill of the player which includes past scores and tees used, difficulty and complexity of the course, known as rating and slope, and weather. This results in an “index” derived from the…

Forty-three million Americans have federal student loan debt. The average balance, $37,000. Conservatively assuming 20% or eight million, are 30 days late at least once this year, their FICO will fall roughly 85 points. That leads to a credit card…