TARIFF TALLY

Seven months into Trump’s Tough Tariffs, the impact has been largely anticlimactic. Inflation is up, but not much due to the tariffs being implemented slowly, effective tariff rates being lower than statutory rates, inventory being worked down, and retailers eating some costs. Relatedly, tariff revenues are about one third of what Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested. Also, manufacturing employment is down, albeit very slightly and unemployment is up, but minimally.