Econ70

For those clamoring for a rate cut, be careful what you ask for. What matters most to the economy is the 10-year Treasury. The Fed, outside of quantitative easing/tightening, only controls the short end of the curve. Last September, when…

July CPI was steady at 0.2% M-o-M and 2.7% Y-o-Y. Unfortunately, the all-important core measure rose from 2.9% to 3.1% Y-o-Y, the highest since 2/25, and was up 0.3% M-o-M, adding to the headache the Fed already has. This is…

During the month of June, outstanding credit card balances dipped $1.1 billion and that followed a $3.8 billion decline in May. Balances have now declined in three of the last four months, and over the past year credit balances have…

25Q2 labor productivity growth was strong at 2.4% Y-o-Y. While 25Q1 was a dismal -1.8%, (the only negative reading since 22Q1) the latest result returns labor productivity growth to its post-pandemic 1.8% average. Strong productivity keeps inflation down despite good…

The Friday File: Across the 32 NHL team arenas, the ice at the Bell Centre in Montreal was rated tops by 44.96% of the 585 players surveyed. In second, Rogers Place in Edmonton at 14.87%, followed by the Canada Life…

Despite significant policy uncertainty and slowing economic growth, equities are at record highs. Here’s why I think it’s happening. The stock market is increasingly uncorrelated with the economy due to the Magnificent Seven. The AI story has captivated investor’s imagination,…

The only reason employment data revisions are noticeably larger is due entirely to low response rates by surveyed businesses. Pre-Covid, response rates on the initial survey were 80%, now they’re below 60%. By the third wave, response rates are where…

In 25Q1, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft collectively spent $88 billion on equipment and property (data centers, semiconductors), primarily in pursuit of their AI goals. Their spending is rising rapidly. During 24Q1 it slightly exceeded $50 billion. Annualized 25Q1 spending…

July job growth rose just 73,000, but May/June were revised down 258,000! Average May/June/July job growth is a dismal 35,000/month, the worst three-month stretch since 6/20. Worse, unemployment rose to 4.2% despite the labor force falling by 35,000 and the…

The Friday File: Singer-song writer, and satirist extraordinaire Tom Lehrer has died at 97. He graduated Harvard with a BA in math at 18, taught at Harvard/MIT, worked at Los Alamos, and the NSA, but his greatest talent was writing…