Econ70

The critical thing about Powell’s talk tomorrow is tone. Can he really offer dovish rate guidance? Equities are at/near record highs, credit spreads are near their tightest ever, the dollar at its lowest level in years, unemployment is just 4.2%,…

Pre-2015, wage growth was consistently higher for high-income workers than low-income ones. Starting in 2015, that began to reverse, and during Covid that new relationship was turbo-charged. Income growth for the bottom fifth of the population at times was twice…

During the year ending 7/25, spending increased 2% for the top third of households, those earning over $120,000/year, 1% for the middle third of households, and was zero, or zilch for the bottom third of households, those earning roughly $50,000/year…

After steadily falling since mid-2022, inflation is again rising. Last month, Y-o-Y import prices rose at their fastest pace this year, Y-o-Y wholesale prices rose at the fastest pace in three years, and Y-o-Y wholesale vegetable prices rose 39% last…

The Friday File: In 2025, Americans are expected to spend $157 billion on their pets, 62% more than in 2019. $67.1 billion will be spent on pet food/treats, $41.4 billion on veterinary care and products, $34.3 billion on supplies, live…

For those clamoring for a rate cut, be careful what you ask for. What matters most to the economy is the 10-year Treasury. The Fed, outside of quantitative easing/tightening, only controls the short end of the curve. Last September, when…

July CPI was steady at 0.2% M-o-M and 2.7% Y-o-Y. Unfortunately, the all-important core measure rose from 2.9% to 3.1% Y-o-Y, the highest since 2/25, and was up 0.3% M-o-M, adding to the headache the Fed already has. This is…

During the month of June, outstanding credit card balances dipped $1.1 billion and that followed a $3.8 billion decline in May. Balances have now declined in three of the last four months, and over the past year credit balances have…

25Q2 labor productivity growth was strong at 2.4% Y-o-Y. While 25Q1 was a dismal -1.8%, (the only negative reading since 22Q1) the latest result returns labor productivity growth to its post-pandemic 1.8% average. Strong productivity keeps inflation down despite good…

The Friday File: Across the 32 NHL team arenas, the ice at the Bell Centre in Montreal was rated tops by 44.96% of the 585 players surveyed. In second, Rogers Place in Edmonton at 14.87%, followed by the Canada Life…