Econ70

The Friday File: The state that falls asleep, on average, the earliest is HI at 11:06pm, followed by AZ and NM at 11:12, and ME at 11:13. DC goes to bed the latest, at 11:56, with NY at 11:53, PR…

OPEC+ has been generally increasing oil production to gain share after reducing supply earlier. However, with global GDP growth slowing, there’s concern demand will not materialize, inventories will grow, and higher production will reduce prices. To date however, inventories have…

Since 1980, there have been nine Fed easing cycles. Across those cycles, the Fed funds rate reduction averaged 232bps and the reduction in the 10-year Treasury averaged 72bps. Around a recession, cuts averaged 400bps and the decline in the 10yr-Treasury…

Last week, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index came in soft and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report showed household job market anxieties w/heightened inflation concerns. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index and Philadelphia Fed Services Index showed stagflationary tendencies, but…

The Friday File: While Scottie Scheffler has five wins in 19 events this year including two majors, he’s been so consistent it’s staggering. Last weekend marked the 14th straight tournament he has finished in the top 10! Nicklaus was the…

Traditionally new homes have almost always been more expensive than existing homes. However, in July, the median existing home sold for $422,400 while the median new home sold for $403,800. Inventory of new homes at 9.2 months vastly exceeds existing…

At the 3/2000 peak of the dotcom boom, the largest stock in the S&P 500 was Microsoft. It was worth $560 billion and accounted for 4.4% of the index. Today it’s Nvidia, worth $4.25 trillion and 7.6% of the index.…

Yesterday, President Trump moved to fire Fed Governor Cook. Despite the questionable legality involved, and the attendant uncertainty of her status, watch the value of the dollar, interest rates, the term premium, and the US sovereign credit rating. The concern…

July new home sales were 652,000 seasonally adjusted and annualized, down 0.6% M-o-M and 8.2% Y-o-Y. Worse, it now takes builders 2.9 months to make a sale upon completion, the longest duration in over three years. Making things worse, the…

The Friday File: Contrary to what the calendar says (9/22/25), fall commences next Tuesday, 8/26/25, as that is when Starbucks will again be serving their famous Pumpkin Spice Latte. If you think this is early for the rollout, think again.…