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Netflix or Paramount, who should get Warner? Money is no object for either bidder. If Netflix, the #1 streaming service buys the #4 streaming service, that’s somewhat troubling. But so is the fact that Paramount’s bid, which would combine the…

Unsurprisingly, the Fed lowered rates by 25bps because ongoing labor market deterioration concerns more members of the Fed than the elevated inflation levels. Despite heated rhetoric about strong reluctance to cut more, like what was said in October, they’ll cut…

Core PCE, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, was 2.8% Y-o-Y in September (yes September), down from August’s 2.9%. Better yet, core PCE came in at 0.2% M-o-M for the fourth time in five months. The three-month trend is running at…

Don’t be fooled by the initial jobless claims data, because companies are reducing employment without layoffs. Businesses are closing positions that become vacant. So, while there may not be a “firing cycle,” there is indeed an “attrition cycle” amongst us.…

Import prices are where at least some tariff impacts would manifest themselves. Yet M-o-M September import inflation was 0.0%, August was a miniscule 0.1%, and July was 0.3%, it appears to be declining. Additionally, Y-o-Y import inflation is a benign…

October existing home sales were 4.1 million annualized units, essentially unchanged from September’s 4.05 million units. For some perspective, this is the same activity level that prevailed in 10/08, during the middle of the Housing Bust and a month after…

With the government now operating, we are getting waves of data. Weekly first-time claims for unemployment insurance are now in and the news is excellent. Initial jobless claims fell to 216,000 for the week of 11/22/25, their lowest since the…

The Friday File: While it took thousands of years to turn wolves into domesticated dogs, evolution is working faster with racoons and making them cuter. Easy food rewards bolder racoons, who are willing to rummage through garbage, but also well-behaved…

On the occasion of the 200th anniversary of George Washington’s Thanksgiving Day Proclamation, President George H.W. Bush officially formalized the turkey pardon tradition we know of today in 1989. The state with the most turkey pardons is Minnesota with 10,…

During the Housing Bust and Covid, the Fed not only bought massive quantities of Treasuries as part of Quantitative Easing but also a huge number of mortgage-backed securities. Should the next recession occur relatively soon expect the Fed to again…