PAYROLL POWER

May net job growth surged 172,000, March/April were revised up 93,000, and the broadest measure of unemployment declined from 8.2% to 8.1%, terrific. However, wage growth declined from 3.6% to 3.4% Y-o-Y, and almost all growth was regrettably in the usual suspects: leisure/hospitality (think World Cup), government, and education/healthcare. But with inflation critically elevated and hiring healthy, forget rate cuts. Expect a long pause and maybe a 26Q4 hike.