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Private sector October employment rose 42,000, the first rise since July, but the data remains troubling. Healthcare/education added 26,000, and trade/transportation/utilities added 47,000, both non-cyclical sectors with little discretionary spending. But professional/business lost 15,000, and leisure/hospitality shed 6,000, both highly…
The Friday File: This season, Inter Miami’s Lionel Messi, last year’s league MVP, earned guaranteed compensation of $20.4 million. That puts Inter Miami’s total compensation at #1 in the MLS at $49 million. LAFC is second at just $30.1 million.…
Should the current closure last three more weeks, it would total two months. While the first weeks of the closure had limited impact, the longer it lasts, the more severe the weekly pain. By 12/1/25, the hit, albeit temporary, to…
The recent large layoffs by Amazon, Target, UPS and others aren’t necessarily alarming. Perspective is critical. The US labor force numbers almost 171 million. Total job separations exceed five million/month, including a million/month who get fired, and slightly over three…
Seven months into Trump’s Tough Tariffs, the impact has been largely anticlimactic. Inflation is up, but not much due to the tariffs being implemented slowly, effective tariff rates being lower than statutory rates, inventory being worked down, and retailers eating…
With limited government data, 25Q3 corporate earnings are receiving outsized attention. Of the 304 Fortune 500 firms reporting so far, 83% have topped analysts’ earnings estimates, and by a wide margin. These results are especially positive given recent bankruptcies of…
The Friday File: This year’s winner of the 52nd World Championship Pumpkin Weigh-Off in Half Moon Bay, CA, held earlier this month, was Brian Dawson. His winning gourd came in at a staggering 2,346 lbs. The world record of 2,749…
The Friday File: 75% of Americans will celebrate Halloween and 25% consider it their favorite holiday. 50% plan to eat candy, 46% plan to hand it out, 31% will get dressed up, and 23% will go trick-or-treating. Reese’s Peanut Butter…
With new sanctions on Russian oil, the volume of global production now under sanctions is 15%, but that has had trivial impacts on supply. Russian oil exports hit a record high last month, and Iranian exports are at their highest…
To the surprise of nobody, the Fed cut rates by 25bps. The surprise was it was hawkish cut. The phrases “not a forgone conclusion” and “in fact far from it” are key. Moreover, there was one dissent in favor of no cut. With…