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Unless the government closure magically ends this week, on 11/1/25 SNAP (formerly Food Stamps) benefits will end for almost 42 million Americans, 12.3% of the population. While the belief that SNAP recipients are lazy is widespread, the data says otherwise.…

September CPI came in relatively tame at 0.3% M-o-M, while all-important core inflation was just 0.2% M-o-M, its lowest reading since June. Both were up 3% Y-o-Y. Shelter inflation is finally falling, tariffs remain hard to discern, and services (think…

The Friday File: The nation with the passport that allows entry into the most destinations visa-free is Singapore at 193 out of a possible 227. South Korea follows at 190, then Japan at 189. The US is tied for 37th…

A recent study trying to mimic what the Business Cycle Dating Committee looks at when determining if the economy is in recession finds 22 states, representing 33% of GDP, in or at high risk of recession. Their problems are due…

While we haven’t seen large numbers of layoffs, monthly hiring is at its lowest level since 6/15, and at the lowest percentage since 3/13. Similarly, job postings on Indeed.com are at their lowest since 2/21. When workers are asked if…

While Chinese exports to the US slid 17% during Jan-Sept, they increased 6.1% elsewhere. However, China still faces serious economic issues amid hardball US trade talks. Q-o-Q 25Q3 GDP growth was 4.8%, but was 5.2% in 25Q2, and 5.4% in…

If there was a common thread in last week’s Fed Beige Book, a purely anecdotal and quantitative report put out eight times/year, it was the declining fortunes of the formerly hot US travel/leisure/hospitality sector. To wit, the decline in international…

The Friday File: Kids are now growing up fast and are probably already asking ChatGPT to tell them a bedtime story. As for old fashioned smartphones, 8% of parents report that their children under five have their own smartphone. That…

The US economy has, to date, performed substantially better than many expected despite tariffs and many other unorthodox policies and interventions coming from DC. There are numerous reasons why. They include falling interest rates, strong corporate earnings, a belief that…

25Q3 bank earnings were a stunning $50 billion, up 20% Y-o-Y! All divisions did well, including wealth management, lending, trading and M&A/investment banking, suggesting a healthy economy. But not so fast. The drivers were big firm borrowing for M&A, and…