Econ70
Markets are implying an 80% chance of a 50bps September cut. Great news, right? Maybe not. On 1/3/2001, the Fed began with a 50bps rate cut and a recession came in March. On 9/18/07, the Fed also began with a…
Since 1930, a period of almost 100 years, the S&P 500 has historically declined by 5% about 3.3 times a year. The frequency of a 10% decline, or a correction, is 1.1 times a year, while the historic frequency of…
Since 1955, the Fed has unwound 86%, on average, of the prior rate hikes during the ensuing rate easing cycle, which we’re entering. This means the Fed funds rate bottoms out at 0.75%. The smallest historical reversal would suggest that…
Employers added 114,000 net July jobs, the lowest level since 12/20 except for the 108,000 three months ago. May and June were revised down by 29,000 and wage growth slowed to 3.6%, barely ahead of inflation, the weakest reading since…
The Friday File: The lightest Olympic athletes are Marathon and 10,000m runners. Female contestants average about 110 lbs., male competitors average about 135 lbs. The next lightest athletes compete in the 5,000m, followed by the 20km walk, and then the…
Yesterday, Nvidia’s market capitalization jumped $329 billion, the largest one-day rise. The increase alone would make the firm the 23rd largest in the S&P 500. The second largest one-day rise is $276.6 billion on 2/22/24 by Nvidia. The third largest…
Unsurprisingly, the Fed left rates unchanged but put markets on notice that a mid-September cut is highly likely. The Fed is now, finally, concerned not just about inflation, which they described almost benignly as just “somewhat elevated,” but more importantly,…
When the Fed began raising rates in 3/22, Fed funds was 0.125% and the CPI was 8.5%, thus the real Fed funds rate was a very stimulative negative 8.375%. Today Fed funds is 5.375% and the CPI is 3%. Thus,…
While US consumer spending remains strong, incomes are not keeping up. Inflation-adjusted Y-o-Y income growth has slid from 5.3% a year ago, to 3.8% in 12/23 to 1% now, while real spending is up 2.6% Y-o-Y, a huge 1.6 percentage…
The Friday file: On 7/26/1903, Horatio Jackson was the first to cross the US by car. The journey from San Francisco to Manhattan with a mechanic took 63 days. The current record is 25 hours and 39 minutes, set in…